Stat of the Day, 19th June 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.45 Ayr : Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, driven when challenged from over 1f out, held on gamely to win by a shorthead)

We now press on with Tuesday’s…

2.55 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 4 Flat  Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground worth £7018 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar Class 4 handicap chase over just half a furlong shorter 14 days ago on his first crack at a non-novice Handicap Chase. Jockey Daniel Sansom retains the ride from that day and is already 2 from 3 on this horse.

Trainer Seamus Mullins’ horses are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 12 from 64 (18.75% SR) for 21.05pts (+32.9% ROI). Both of these details are useful pointers, but this horse became of real interest to me when he was flagged up as a qualifier of one my (many) stored micro-systems, namely…

2013-18 / UK Class 3-4 Handicap Chases / shorter than 3.5 miles / going contains the word “good” : males who won a Hcp Chase LTO 4-20 days earlier are 216/823 (26.3% SR) for 124pts (+15.1% ROI), including…

  • at odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 158/654 (24.2%) for 157.7pts (+24.1%)
  • 1-2 previous hcp chase wins : 162/545 (29.7%) for 119.4pts (+21.9%)
  • 6-15 days since LTO win : 144/483 (29.8%) for 115.7pts (+23.9%)
  • 1-5 previous hcp chase runs : 109/379 (28.8%) for 55.2pts (+14.6%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 13/47 (27.7%) for 13.8pts (+29.3%)

…from which, those with 1-2 previous hcp chase wins from 1-5 previous hcp chase runs priced at 6/4 to 10/1 running 6 to 15 days after the LTO win are 51/154 (33.1% SR) for 109.6pts (+71.2% ROI) with 2018 showing 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 18.9pts (+269.7%) profit.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on I See You Well @ 5/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.55 Stratford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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