Tuesday’s Pick was…
2.55 Stratford : I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, not always fluent, headway on outside 9th, driven and every chance before last, stayed on same pace flat and beaten by 5L)
Next up is Wednesday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Tropics @ 4/1 BOG
An 11-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on polytrack worth £25876 to the winner…
This 10 yr old gelding is showing no signs of letting his advancing years slow him down, winning 4 of his last 8 starts on Turf/AW, including a comfortable 2 length victory here over course and distance at this grade last time out a week ago.
A 6lb rise in weight is semi-negated by a 3lb jockey claim today (jockey has won with him previously) and based on the manner of his last run/win, a 3lb difference shouldn’t be enough to anchor him here.
To date, he has 5 wins and 4 places from 14 starts on the A/W, including the following of note/relevance today…
- 5 wins & 3 places from 11 within 30 days of his last run
- 4 wins and a place from 10 in a hood
- 5 wins and a place from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
- 4 from 6 going left handed
- 3 from 5 as a 10 yr old
- 2 wins and 2 places from 4 occasions sent off as a favourite
- 2 from 2 at 5f
- 2 from 2 over course and distance
- 1 from 1 at Class 2
- 1 from 1 over course and distance at Class 2
- 1 from 1 in June
…he has also won 3 of 9 runs at Listed class on turf, where he also has a Gr 3 win to his name. He’s not the force he used to be when making the frame in a couple of group 1 contests, but remains a decent competitor at this level.
His trainer Dean Ivory has a 22/136 (16.2% SR) record in handicaps at this venue that has rewarded his followers with 23.3pts profit at an ROI of 17.2%, from which…
- those sent off at odds of 12/1 and shorter are 21/104 (20.2%) for 35.2pts (+33.8%)
- LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6%) for 2.8pts (+14.6%)
- those last seen 6-10 days earlier are 4/13 930.8%) for 23.2pts (+178.1%)
- and over 5f : 3/12 925%) for 2pts (+16.7%)
…whilst more generally since the start of 2013, Dean’s horses running at the same class and distance as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 12 from 35 (34.3% SR) for 13.38pts (+38.2% ROI) profit, including…
- at 9/2 and shorter : 12/28 (42.9%) for 20.38pts (+72.8%)
- won by a head to 2L LTO : 11/27 (40.7%) for 18.36pts (+68%)
- on the A/W : 9/26 (34.6%) for 9.23pts (+35.5%)
- at the same course and distance as LTO : 7/17 (41.2%) for 8.04pts (+47.3%)
- here at Chelmsford : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.46pts (+55.8%)
…and from that data…those priced at 9/2 and shorter on the A/W after a win by a head to 2 lengths LTO are 8 from 18 (44.4% SR) for 14.22pts (+79% ROI) and amongst those 18 runners…
- those racing at the same course and distance as LTO are 5/11 (45.5%) for 4.9pts (+44.5%)
- Chelmsford runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.46pts (+78%)
- those running over the same Chelmsford trip as LTO are 2 from 4 (50%) for 3pts (+75%) profit
…which all points towards…a 1pt win bet on Tropics @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betway, Ladbrokes & SportPesa at 5.30pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!