Wednesday’s Pick was…
7.10 Chelmsford : Tropics @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 3/1 (Unruly in stalls, fly leapt start and lost all chance, always in rear)
Next up is Thursday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG
A 10-runner, Group 2 Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £113420 to the winner…
With the obvious caveat about the ground maybe not suiting her (she’d probably be a fair shorter than 11/4 on softer), it’s hard for me to look beyond this likeable, classy filly. She’s already a Group 1 winner via last season’s Prix Marcel Boussac and with two creditable runs in defeat at that level this season, she brings the best form to the table today.
That form was a decent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before finishing as runner-up in the recent Oaks beating two of today’s rivals in the process. William Buick is in the saddle and he’s in great form right now, including winning twice at this festival already this week : one of which was for trainer Charlie Appleby and it’s their relationship that I’m going to look at here.
I’m keeping it simple today, but the Appleby / Buick / Class 1 axis stands at 21 winners from 124 (16.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+12.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016, so they’re a fairly safe long-term bet. With respect to today’s contest, those 124 runners are…
- 19/100 (19%) for 31.9pts (+31.9%) after a top 4 finish LTO
- 15/70 (21.4%) for 3.6pts (+5.1%) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 (so they win plenty but get overbet)
- 11/64 (17.2%) for 18.2pts (+28.4%) when tilting for prizes in excess of £40k
- 10/60 (16.6%) for 12.8pts (+21.3%) when racing 11-30 days since their last run
- 11/50 (22%) for 31.9pts (+63.8%) at the age of 3
- 5/29 (17.2%) for 27.9pts (+96.2%) in June
- 5/23 (21.7%) for 15.4pts (+67.1%) here at Ascot
- and 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.2pts (+107.4%) after running in a Group 1 race last time out.
And to be honest with you, those numbers allied to her form/ability is enough to convince me to part with my usual stake, but I can add another layer of data for reassurance via the fact that her “daddy” is the mighty Dubawi…
..and Dubawi offspring racing at Class 1 on the Flat over this 1m4f trip are 19/86 (22.1% SR) for 28.6pts (+33.3% ROI), from which…
- those with a top 3 finish LTO are 16/58 (27.6%) for 40.9pts (+70.5%)
- competing for £50k+ : 10/53 (18.9%) for 14.1pts (+26.6%)
- in June : 6/28 (21.4%) for 11.2pts (+40%)
- at Ascot : 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.5pts (+85.5%)
- at Group 2 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.3pts (+151.6%)
- 11-20 days since last run : 5/18 (27.8%) for 20.04pts (+111.3%)
- and here at Royal Ascot : 2/7 (28.6%) for 17.96pts (+256.6%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG, which was widely available at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!