Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

3.40 Ascot : Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on outside, went 2nd 2f out, ridden and no chance with winner over 1f out, plugged on)

Next up is Friday’s…

5.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6, Amateur Riders Handicap for 4yo+ over 1msf on Good ground worth £3369 to the winner… 

Why?

In a race seemingly full of out-of-form horses, our boy’s 5 length success at Haydock LTO 15 days ago stands out like a relatively sore thumb. That was another amateur riders’ contest, but at a higher grade than today and the jockey from last time, Emily Easterby, retains the ride seeking her fourth win on this horse.

Emily doesn’t get too many opportunities to display her talents, but over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we’re halfway through this one!), she has won 7 of 47 (14.9% SR) Flat handicaps for profits of 13.22pts at a healthy ROI of 28.1%, and of those 47 rides…

  • Class 6 : 4/24 (16.6%) for 6.98pts (+29.1%)
  • in Amateur Riders’ handicaps : 4/19 (21.1%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at 1m2f to 1m4f : 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.17pts (+209%)
  • and in Class 6 Amateur Riders’ handicaps : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.98pts (+158.2%)

As for today’s trainer, Emily’s father, Tim Easterby : he’s been in decent touch of late with 25 winners from 139 (18% SR) generating profits of 54.47pts (+39.2% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long term his Class 4 to 6 runners here at Ayr are 24/153 (15.7% SR) for 36pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2009, including…

  • males at 20/111 (18%) for 44.2pts (+39.8%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.18pts (+46.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.22pts (+38%)

…and male LTO winners running 11-20 days later are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 11pts (+157.2% ROI)…

The LTO winner stats are interesting (to me, anyway!), as in 2018 alone Tim’s LTO winners are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 12.49pts (+39.1% ROI), including…

  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 13.4pts (+63.8%) this Flat season
  • 6/12 (50%) for 19.97pts (166.4%) just 11-20 days after their last run
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.16pts (+74.2%) on good ground
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.96pts (+99.4%) who won by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) f0r 10.08pts (+252%) at Class 6
  • and 1/1 for 8.46pts here at Ayr…

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 9.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.55 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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