Friday’s Pick was…
5.55 Ayr : Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 10/1 (Mid-division, kept on same pace final 2f)
Next up is Saturday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG
A 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £5913 to the winner…
This 8yr old mare has been in tremendous form for a year now, winning six of her nine starts in that time with two runner-up finishes and a third place her worst result in a form line reading 211123111!
This run has culminated in a course and distance success here at Perth in a Class 3 contest 37 days ago and although she’s up another 4lbs for that effort, she does take a drop in class today.
Her record over hurdles is excellent and includes the following of note/relevance today…
- 6 wins and 2 places from 14 over 2m/2m0.5f
- 5 wins and 2 places from 8 with a tongue tie
- 4 wins and 2 places from 6 (her last 6) under today’s jockey James Corbett
- 3 wins from 6 after a break of 1 to 2 months
- 2 wins and a place from her three visits to this track
- 2 from 2 over 2m/2m0.5f here
- 1 from 1 (LTO) over this course and distance
She is trained by Susan Corbett, whose own record here at Perth stands at 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) for 55pts (+203.7% ROI) since 2014, including…
- hurdlers @ 6/23 (26.1%) for 59pts (+256.6%)
- James Corbett with 5 wins from 20 (25%) for 58.9pts (+294.5%)
- and handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 47.3pts (+278.2%) : all of which were hurdlers ridden by James Corbett.
In addition to the above, Susan’s LTO winners are 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 5.93pts (+20.4% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which…
- hurdlers are 4/17 (23.5%) for 8.86pts (+52.1%)
- those running 21-45 days after the LTO win are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.74pts (+108.2%)
- whilst here at Perth = 2/5 (40%) for 2.44pts (+48.8%)
Now, more generally and over a longer term with a much bigger sample size…in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, horses with the CD logo next to their name who were also LTO winners 16 to 120 days earlier are 109/547 (19.9% SR) for 110.8pts (+20.3% ROI), including…
- those who won over C&D LTO : 85/392 (21.7%) for 91.9pts (+23.5%)
- 8 yr olds : 20/84 (23.8%) for 55.1pts (+65.6%)
- in June : 11/40 (27.5%) for 45pts (+112.5%)
- 8 yr olds who won over C&D LTO : 13/61 (21.3%) for 23.7pts (+38.9%)
- LTO C&D winners running in June : 10/27 (37%) for 54pts (+200%)
- and 8 yr old LTO C&D winners running in June : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.77pts (+168.1%)
And finally, before I wrap this one up, I want to quickly acknowledge this mare’s breeding, as her father is Ivan Denisovich and his offspring excel in this type of contest as demonstrated by…
- 25 wins from 151 (16.6%) for 205.3pts (+135.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m1.5f
- 20 wins from 151 (13.25%) for 159.5pts (+105.6%) over hurdles
- and his hurdlers over 2m to 2m1.5f are 17/109 (15.6%) for 183.2pts (+168.1%)…
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.35pm on Friday evening with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!