Saturday’s Pick was…
5.40 Perth : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, headway when not fluent 2 out, never on terms, one pace)
Next up is Monday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG
An 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…
She comes here on a hat-trick after successive wins at Yarmouth and Leicester which have helped her take her career record to 2 from 3 at 6 furlongs and 2 from 2 on good/firm ground, so conditions should be fine for here. Oisin Murphy takes the ride today and he was on board last time out, so there’s some familiarity there too.
She’s trained by Ralph Beckett, whose runners are 24/117 (20.5% SR) for 11.63pts (+9.94% ROI) backed blindly here at Windsor over the last 4.5 seasons (including this one), from which those running in handicaps are 13/60 (21.7%) for 10.29pts (+17.2%) and it is these 60 handicappers that I’m going to focus on, because…
- 3 yr olds are 12/44 (27.3%) for 19.4pts (+44.1%)
- those priced at 9/4 to 8/1 are 11/41 (26.8%) for 25.6pts (+62.5%)
- in June/July : 7/29 (24.1%) for 9.22pts (+31.8%)
- females are 7/26 (26.9%) for 12.93pts (+49.7%)
- on Good to Firm : 6/24 (25%) for 12.24pts (+51%)
- at Class 5 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 3.52pts (+18.5%)
- in female only races : 4/10 (40%) for 17.4pts (+174%)
- LTO winners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.92pts (+70.3%)
- whilst those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 2/5 (40%) for 5.53pts (+110.6%)
Now, that Oisin Murphy 2 from 5 stat might not look over-important at the bottom of the list, but it’s definitely worth knowing that he has ridden 38 winners from 194 (19.6% SR) rides on Mr Beckett’s horses since the start of 2014 generating profits of 70.3pts at an ROI of some 36.2%. This suggests you can back the partnership blindly, but if that’s too many bets for you, the following relevant Beckett/Murphy angles are at play today…
- on the Flat : 27/135 (20%) for 42.7pts (+31.6%)
- 3 yr olds are 15/82 (18.3%) for 32.4pts (+39.5%)
- handicappers are 20/76 (26.3%) for 79.4pts (+104.5%)
- at Class 5 : 14/76 (18.4%) for 5.18pts (+6.82%)
- in June/July : 12/48 (25%) for 54.4pts (+113.3%)
- on Good to Firm : 9/42 (21.4%) for 43.2pts (+102.9%)
- and here at Windsor : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.13pts (+45.9%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!