Stat of the Day, 26th June 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

7.10 Windsor : Edge of the World @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Restless in stalls and slowly into stride, soon mid-division on outside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong, went 3rd near finish)

Next up is Tuesday’s…

2.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 5yr old gelding actually won this race last year under today’s jockey off a mark 1lb higher than today, so he certainly hasn’t been weighted out of contention and showed intent with a creditable third placed finish over course and distance last time out 15 days ago, despite being poorly drawn in a race not run to suit him.

Stat-wise, I’ve been accused on several occasions lately that my picks have lacked logic, so I’m going to keep it simple, although there is plenty of compelling data in what I will share today. I’ll leave the more complicated stuff out!

So, we’ll start with trainer Alan Bailey and his record at Brighton, which stands at 12 from 43 (27.9% SR) for 36.9pts (+85.9% ROI) profit since the start of the 2011 season, from which…

  • handicappers are 9/37 (24.3%) for 35.4pts (+95.7%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 39.8pts (+110.7%)
  • top 5 finish LTO : 12/30 (40%) for 49.9pts (+166.4%)
  • Class 6 : 6/26 (23.1%) for 5.5pts (+21.2%)
  • males : 8/23 (34.8%) for 31.3pts (+136.2%)
  • at 6/1 and shorter : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.9pts (+137.8%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/20 (35%) for 35.3pts (+176.5%)
  • since the start of last season : 4/9 944.4%) for 16.66pts (+185.1%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 2/4 (50%) for 20.6pts (+515%)

Meanwhile, today’s jockey, 5lb claimer Joshua Bryan is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 8.32pts (+52%) here at this venue whilst overall he is 7 from 39 (18% SR) for 10.9pts (+28% ROI) for trainer Alan Bailey.

The partnership is strongest on the Flat, where they are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 23.9pts (+92% ROI) profit and these runners include…

  • handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 25.9pts (+108%)
  • claiming 5lbs : 6/18 (33.3%) for 26.8pts (+149%)
  • at 8/1 and shorter : 7/14 (50%) for 35.9pts (+256.4%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.54pts (+136.2%)
  • Class 6 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

…and claiming 5lbs on a handicapper priced at 8/1 and shorter = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 35.8pts at an ROI of 398.1%…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Strictly Carter @ 5/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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