Stat of the Day, 29th June 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

2.10 Newmarket : Hyanna @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Held up towards rear, headway on outside over 2f out, ridden chasing leaders over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, went 3rd close home)

Next up is Friday’s…

5.35 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOG

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And another 8-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m  on Good to Firm ground worth £4528 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yrs old gelding has fairly been around the block with this being his 80th start today! So, whilst it’s fair to say that he’s massively exposed and presents little opportunity for a surprise, he’s showing no signs of slowing down, as exemplified by him making the frame in each of the 10 starts he’s already made this year.

He has won two of those ten, both over this 1m trip, including a course and distance success last time out a week ago.. That was a week ago on his first visit to this track and under today’s jockey who used her 5lb claim to good effect. The horse isn’t penalised for winning that race, as it was for apprentice jockeys and with the rider now claiming her full 7lbs, we’re effectively 2lbs better off here.

He’s trained by Tony Carroll, whose LTO winners are 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 23.9pts (+82.4% ROI) this year, including 7 winners from 20 (35%) for 17.3pts (+86.5%) over trips of a mile and shorter.

Tony’s 7f to 1m2f runners turned back out within 30 days of their last run have also gone well this year, winning 12 of 60 (20% SR) for 56.5pts (+94.2% ROI), with LTO winners doubling up 3 times from 12 (25%) for 12.3pts (+102.5%) profit.

Whilst more generally (and with a bigger sample size!), since the start of 2013, Class 4 to 6 horses who were C&D winners by a head or more at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 (eliminating short priced jollies and rank longshots) in the previous 10 days are 181 from 514 (35.2% SR) for 121.9pts (+23.7% ROI) racing at the same class as LTO.

Of these 514 quick returners…

  • those last seen 6 to 10 days ago are 151/447 (33.8%) for 95.4pts (+21.3%)
  • on the Flat : 55/162 (34%) for 41.6pts (+25.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 60/154 (39%) for 58.1pts (+37.7%)
  • over a 1m trip : 22/61 (36.1%) for 25.9pts (+42.4%)
  • and in June : 13/38 (34.2%) for 12.1pts (+31.8%)

…with Class 5 Flat handicappers running 6 to 10 days after their last run winning again on 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) occasions generating profits of 15pts at an ROI of 30.6%… 

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.35 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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