Stat of the Day, 30th June 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

5.35 Newmarket : Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced keenly tracking leading pair until 3f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace and never going pace to challenge)

We end the month with Saturday’s…

7.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG

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In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

OK, I’m a little late with the write-up, as I’m a bit under the weather (hay fever kicking in) and my wifi signal isn’t great today, so I’ll keep it brief.

I’m well aware that I’ve backed this horse a few times lately, but I do feel he’s due a win, plus I don’t like the favourite here at the odds offered, so he’s worth taking on today.

Our boy despite those recent defeats for us, has won 6 times within 30 days of his last run, has 5 wins over the minimum trip, 6 wins off a mark in the 60’s and 4 wins at Class 5, so conditions won’t be alien to him.

His trainer Simon Dow is 22 from 152 (14.5% SR) for 54.3pts (+35.7% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs during the last two years and these include :

  • handicappers at 17/110 (15.5%) for 70.9pts (+64.4%)
  • 6-25 days since last run = 16/76 (21.1%) for 90.7pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter = 16/43 (37.2%) for 29.7pts (+69.1%)
  • Class 5 = 10/59 (17%) for 26.4pts (+44.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/27 (18.5%) for 8.5pts (+31.5%)

…and Class 5 handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter 6 to 25 days after their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 11.64pts (+129.4% ROI)…

Tom Marquand is in the saddle today and has enjoyed a modicum of success on Simon’s runners, winning on 8 of 42 (19.1% SR) occasions for profits of 29pts (+69% ROI), from which…

  • male runners are 8/39 (20.5%) for 32pts (+82%)
  • handicappers are 7/32 (21.9%) for 35.6pts (+111.3%)
  • in 2018 : 7/28 (25%) for 20.5pts (+73.3%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 are 6/11 (54.6%) for 18.4pts (+167.4%)

…and male handicappers are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+96.3% ROI) this year, with those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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