Friday’s Pick was…
5.35 Newmarket : Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced keenly tracking leading pair until 3f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace and never going pace to challenge)
We end the month with Saturday’s…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG
In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…
OK, I’m a little late with the write-up, as I’m a bit under the weather (hay fever kicking in) and my wifi signal isn’t great today, so I’ll keep it brief.
I’m well aware that I’ve backed this horse a few times lately, but I do feel he’s due a win, plus I don’t like the favourite here at the odds offered, so he’s worth taking on today.
Our boy despite those recent defeats for us, has won 6 times within 30 days of his last run, has 5 wins over the minimum trip, 6 wins off a mark in the 60’s and 4 wins at Class 5, so conditions won’t be alien to him.
His trainer Simon Dow is 22 from 152 (14.5% SR) for 54.3pts (+35.7% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs during the last two years and these include :
- handicappers at 17/110 (15.5%) for 70.9pts (+64.4%)
- 6-25 days since last run = 16/76 (21.1%) for 90.7pts (+119.3%)
- at odds of 5/1 and shorter = 16/43 (37.2%) for 29.7pts (+69.1%)
- Class 5 = 10/59 (17%) for 26.4pts (+44.7%)
- 4 yr olds are 5/27 (18.5%) for 8.5pts (+31.5%)
…and Class 5 handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter 6 to 25 days after their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 11.64pts (+129.4% ROI)…
Tom Marquand is in the saddle today and has enjoyed a modicum of success on Simon’s runners, winning on 8 of 42 (19.1% SR) occasions for profits of 29pts (+69% ROI), from which…
- male runners are 8/39 (20.5%) for 32pts (+82%)
- handicappers are 7/32 (21.9%) for 35.6pts (+111.3%)
- in 2018 : 7/28 (25%) for 20.5pts (+73.3%)
- those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 are 6/11 (54.6%) for 18.4pts (+167.4%)
…and male handicappers are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+96.3% ROI) this year, with those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG, which was widely available at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!