Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

8.45 Hamilton : Isabella @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Led, driven and hard pressed from over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on when narrowly headed inside final furlong, just held)

We continue with Tuesday’s…

8.00 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £5588 to the winner… 

Why?

After falling just short yesterday (pace prediction spot on, but she just couldn’t see it out), today’s cards are not what I wanted to face looking for a winner, as it’s possibly the worst day’s racing I’ve seen for a while. That said, every race has a winner and I expect this 7yr old gelding to do just that.

I’m going to keep it simple, though and start with the horse himself. A runner-up on each of his last two starts, firstly over 2m1.5f and then over 2m4.5f twelve days ago, he stayed on well both times but looked like he needs even further, so an extra 350 yards or so could well make all the difference today.

He’s trained by Donald McCain, who admittedly hasn’t had as many winners of late as he’d have liked (a feeling I’m very familiar with!), but with 60% of his 20 runners making the frame over the last fortnight, the signs are there that both the camp is in good nick and better times are around the corner.

I should at this point draw the correlation between today’s type of contest and Donald’s recent record, because since the start of 2016, you could blindly back his Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdlers over trips of 2m3,5f to 2m7f and make a tidy profit. More specifically : 37 winners from 215 (17.2% SR) have generated level stakes profit of 80.1pts (+37.3% ROI) from a simple blind “bet and forget” approach.

And of those 215 runners, those reappearing after a rest of just 11 to 20 days are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 43.9pts (+102% ROI).

And now onto his record here at Stratford, which is more than decent in that same 2016 to 2018 timeframe, but he simply doesn’t send many here! That said, those that have come have won 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) for 38.5pts (+160.5% ROI) profit, so they’re more than worth a second glance, especially as…

  • hurdlers are 4/16 (25%) for 18pts (+112.7%)
  • Class 4 runners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 27.8pts (+198.9%)
  • using a claiming jockey = 4/12 (33.3%) for 31.34pts (+261.2%)
  • in the June to September summer jumps period : 5/9 (55.6%) for 46.4pts (+515.3%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/2 : 4/6 966.6%) for 8.5pts (+141.7%)
  • those last seen 10-25 days ago are 3/5 (60%) for 24.71pts (+494.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 2/4 (50%) for 3.15pts (+78.75%)
  • those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 2/2 (100%) for 5.15pts (+257.5%)
  • and Harry Stock has ridden one winner from two for 2.33pts profit…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from at least a half dozen firms at 5.30pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.00 Stratford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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