Stat of the Day, 4th July 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

8.00 Stratford :Good Tradition @ 5/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (2nd until after 1st, chased leaders, went 2nd again 2 out, soon led, clear before last, easily won by some 27 lengths!)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

4.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £3184 to the winner… 

Why?

No danger of Tuesday’s runner getting nailed late on, as he won by 27 lengths with ease. I’m hoping for a similar level of performance from this 6 yr old gelding, who probably did a little too much on the front end when third (beaten by 2 lengths) when last seen 32 days ago. That said he fared best of those racing prominently and our racecard data suggests prominent racing is successful here over this trip at Worcester.

To date, our boy has…

  • 3 wins and 7 places from 13 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Worcester
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over this 2m7.5f trip
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under today’s jockey Tom O’Brien
  • won his only attempt at course and distance (also ridden by Tom O’Brien that day.

He is trained by Robert Stephens, who seems to have found a little niche in races like today’s, as since the start of 2015, his hurdlers are 8 from 33 (24.2% SR) for 45.7pts (+138.5% ROI) here at Worcester, with the following angles of relevance at play on this occasion…

  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m : 5/23 (21.7%) for 46pts (+200%)
  • within 5 weeks of their last run : 7/21 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+173.3%)
  • handicappers are 6/21 (28.6%) for 42.6pts (+202.9%)
  • on good ground : 5/21 (23.8%) for 43.2pts (+205.7%)
  • ridden by Tom O’Brien : 6/18 933.3%) for 21.95pts (+122%)
  • males are 4/16 (25%) for 41.1pts (+256.6%)
  • those racing off a mark (OR) of 90-105 are 6/15 (40%) for 34.7pts (+231.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.2pts (+122.8%)
  • in July : 4/13 (30.8%) for 27pts (+207.7%)
  • 3 to 5 weeks since last run : 4/12 933.3%) for 35.7pts (+297.7%)
  • and those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO are 4/10 (40%) for 28.71pts (+287.1%)

And if you wanted some non-trainer/course specific data, one of my stored micro-systems tells me that in UK Class 3-5 handicap hurdle races over 2 to 3 miles during the March to September period, former course and distance winners who either won or were beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 119/502 (23.7% SR) for 252.5pts (+50.3% ROI).

The above will clearly give rise to a whole host of profitable angles, which I won’t bore you with, but it’s worth noting that…

  • those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO are 27/96 (28.1%) for 104.6pts (+108.9%)
  • whilst here at Worcester, they are 18/51 (35.3%) for 89.3pts (+175.1%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOGwhich was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.40 Worcester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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