Stat of the Day, 10th July 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.50 Wolverhampton : My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG 8th at 11/4 (Led until over 2f out, soon lost place and hastily retreated)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

5.00 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Quoteline Direct @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG***

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In a 9-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner…

Why?

Over the last nine months, this 5 yr old gelding has raced seven times, making the frame on five occasions and going on to to win twice, including a win here at Ponty over course and distance eight days ago when last seen. A fairly quick turnaround might be the key to maintaining his form as his run prior to that win was nine days earlier.

He’s trained by Micky Hammond, who since 2010 has saddled 24 winners at this track and although it has needed 247 runners (9.7% SR) to get there, backing all of them has actually been quite profitable with 55.3pts equating to some 22.4% of stakes.

The strike rate and ROI have improved in recent years, however and since the start of last season, Micky has had 7 winners from 39 (18% SR) here for profits of 36.1pts (+92.7% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • at Class 5 : 6/29 (20.7%) for 43.9pts (+151.3%)
  • more than 1 week but less than 4 weeks rest : 6/22 (27.3%) for 41.7pts (+189.6%)
  • over trips of a mile to a mile and a half : 5/22 (22.7%) for 42.1pts (+191.4%)
  • those finishing in the first three home LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 35.1pts (+219.1%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.38pts (+30.7%)…

whilst Class 5 runners racing over trips of a mile to a mile and a half after finishing in the first three home LTO more than 1 week but less than 4 weeks earlier are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for profits of 34pts at an ROI of 566.7% with a 1 from 1 record on Good to Firm ground acquired by Quoteline Direct LTO!

More generally, horses racing at Classes 4 to 6 at the same class as an LTO C&D success by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 181/516 (35.1% SR) for 119.9pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of 2013 (trust me, it’s really not as complicated in practice as it looks in print!) and of these 516…

  • those now priced at 13/2 and shorter are 177/465 (38.1%) for 129.1pts (+27.8%)
  • males are 141/400 (35.3%) for 98pts (+24.5%)
  • on the Flat : 55/164 (33.5%) for 39.6pts (+24.2%)
  • and at Class 5 : 60/156 (38.5%) for 56.1pts (+35.9%)

…from which we get Class 5 males at 13/2 and shorter on the Flat winning 16 of 35 (44.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+67.5% ROI)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Quoteline Direct @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG***which was available from Bet365 & Betway respectively at 6.00pm on Monday evening (I’ll be using 4/1 for my records, of course). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Pontefract

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

PLEASE NOTE : WEDNESDAY’S SELECTION WON’T APPEAR UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING!

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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