Stat of the Day, 12th July 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

5.55 Kempton : Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well and held towards finish, beaten by a neck)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

8.10 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Related @ 7/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £7116 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is actually 0 from 7 this year, but that doesn’t deter me from backing a horse that wouldn’t be winning out of turn after finishing 432 inside the past 40 days, all over today’s 6f trip on Good to Firm ground, including (3rd place) one in a higher grade than this. This mini sequence culminated when only failing by a neck behind the in-form Hackney Road 12 days ago.

My interested was first raised when I saw Paul Midgely’s name next to it, as Paul is one of the trainers in a little microsystem of mine that I’ve catchily titled “Late Summer Handicaps”. Maybe not the best of titles, but it does what it says on the tin!

Basically…Paul Midgely + UK Flat Handicaps + Class 3-6 + July-September = 49/329 (14.9% SR) for 105.5pts (+32.1% ROI) since the start of the 2014 campaign. You could, of course back them all blindly (there were 115 bets last summer), but if you’d prefer to be more selective, here are some angles that are both profitable and relevant to this race…

  • Over 5-6 furlongs : 49/303 (16.2%) for 131.5pts (+43.4%)
  • Males : 43/249 (17.3%) for 160.9pts (+64.6%)
  • Competing for less than £8k : 42/277 (15.2%) for 102.7pts (+37.1%)
  • 4-10 yr olds : 41/223 (18.4%) for 157.7pts (+70.7%)
  • In 2017 : 20/115 (17.4%) for 85.4pts (+74.3%)
  • Over 6 furlongs : 20/103 (19.4%) for 86pts (+83.5%)
  • After just 11-15 days rest : 19/95 (20%) for 128.8pts (+135.6%)
  • On Good to Firm ground : 17/109 (15.6%) for 45.2pts (+41.5%)

Obviously all of the above apply, but start to put them together and it’s interesting (to me, anyway!) to find that 4-10 yr old males racing over 6f for less than £8k prize money are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 101.4pts (+149.1% ROI) and these are the ones to focus one from the micro after shedding some 261 bets to make just 4.1pts less profit.

If you used this as your starting point for a bet, you’d have had…

  • 11 winners from 34 (32.4%) for 84.6pts (+248.9%) from those rested for just 11-20 days
  • 9 winners from 34 (26.5%) for 71.1pts (+209.2%) at Class 4
  • 9 winners from 27 (33.3%) for 59.3pts (+219.6%) last year alone
  • and 5 winners from 17 (29.4%) for 63pts (+370.7%) on Good to Firm ground

We should always be wary of really small sample sizes, of course, but last year the Class 4 runners racing 11-20 days after their last run were 4 from 6 966.6% SR) for 22.1pts (+369% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record on Good To Firm!

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Related @ 7/2 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Epsom

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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