Stat of the Day, 14th July 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

3.00 Newmarket : Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Keen, raced wide early, tracked leader, pushed along over 3f out, ridden and weakened over 1f out)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG

In a 14-runner, Group 1 contest for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £283550 to the winner…

Why?

An impressive display last time out when landing the Kings Stand over 5f at Royal Ascot 25 days ago for his first win in a Group 1 contest. He semed to get stronger as the race progressed and certainly didn’t look like he’d been off the track for almost 9 months!

I think he’ll come on again for having had a run and the step back up to 6f looks a logical one to me and his career stats suggest he’ll relish the challenge faced today, as so far his record includes…

• 5 wins & 2 places from 9 over 6f
• 5 wins & 2 places from 8 under jockey William Buick
• 4 wins & 2 places from 7 on Good to Firm ground
• 4 wins & 1 place from 6 as favourite
• 2 wins from 3 in July/August
• 2 from 2 running 16-30 days after his last effort
• 1 win & 1 place in fields of 12 or more runners
• 1 from 1 this season
• has a Gr 1 success to his name

He is trained by Charlie Appleby, whose overall record is both excellent and well-documented, so I won’t bore you by repeating it, but you might not know that his record at this July meeting here at Newmarket stands at 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 17.43 pts (+45.9% ROI) profit over the last three (inc this one) years. And I’ll keep this simple, but of those 38 entries…

• those sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 9/29 (31%) for 26.43pts (+91.1%)
• over 6/7 furlongs : 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.11pts (+88%)
• ridden by William Buick : 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.72pts (+58.1%)
• in fields of 12-14 runners : 5/11 (45.5%) for 23.57pts (+214.3%)

…and Appleby / Buick / July Meeting / 2016-18 / 6 to 7 furlongs / Evens to 7-1 / 12-14 runners = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15.77pts (+394.2% ROI)…

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG, a price available from Bet365 & SunBets at 5.05pm on Friday with plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!