Stat of the Day, 17th July 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

3.05 Ayr : Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Made all, joined 2f out, strongly pressed 1f out, stayed on gamely)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

3.10 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG

In another 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+, this time over 5f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner… 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner here at Bath over 5.5f two starts ago, before a 6lb hike in the weights seemed to be a step too far next/last time out when he finished third over this 5f track and trip. In fairness, he was only beaten by two lengths that day and a 3lb easing by the handicapper could well be enough to help him record a 5th win of the year.

His career stats suggest another decent run is on the cards, as under today’s conditions, his record includes…

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 39 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 3 places from 36 with a tongue tie
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 29 wearing cheekpieces
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 15 at odds of 15/8 to 4/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 15 this year
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 8 going left handed on turf
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 in July
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Bath (all over 5/5.5f)
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on Firm ground

His trainer David Griffiths’ horses are 24/138 (17.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+27% ROI) since the start of 2014 when turned back out just 6 to 10 days after their last run from which, handicappers are 23/121 (19%) for 50.15pts (+41.5%) and of these 121 quick returning handicappers…

  • males are 22/104 (21.2%) for 64.1pts (+61.6%)
  • those priced at Evens to 17/2 are 19/65 (29.2%) for 48.5pts (+74.6%)
  • males priced at Evens to 17/2 are 18/60 (30%) for 50.4pts (+84%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/30 (20%) for 10.2pts (+34%)
  • those stepping up a class are 7/21 (33.3%) for 30.5pts (+145.3%)
  • Class 5 males priced at Evens to 17/2 are 6/18 (33.3%) for 22.2pts (+123.3%)
  • males priced at Evens to 17/2 stepping up a class are 6/9 (66.6%) for 30.7pts (+341%)
  • and males priced at Evens to 17/2 stepping up a class to Class 5 are 2/3 (66.6%) for 12.17pts (+405.6%)

And finally for today, a quick word about our jockey Fran Berry, as he has won 11 of 51 Class 4-6 handicaps here at Bath and that 21.6% strike rate is worth 37.2pts at an ROI of 73% for those backing him, including 4/20 (20%) for 15.45pts (+77.25%) at Class 5 and 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.69pts (+33.5%) on Firm ground…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Archimedes @ 3/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.20pm on Monday with some 7/2 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Bath

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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