Stat of the Day, 18th July 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

3.10 Bath : Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd and no extra towards finish)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

7.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner… 

Why?

OK, bear with me here, as some of you might have noticed that this 7 yr old gelding is currently on 13-month/16-race losing run, so that’s got to end soon, surely?

All joking apart, now that he’s tumbled in the weights, he has shown some signs of a return to previous form, beaten by just two lengths in a higher grade than this two starts ago at Newbury, before finishing fourth at Wolverhampton nine days ago.

In that Wolverhampton contest, he fared best of the hold-up horses and was possibly a little unlucky to be hampered at a crucial time, just as he was winding up for a run, so to come here off a career low mark, some 12lbs below that last win, could just be the right time to get back to winning ways.

He has won 6 of 15 races when sent off at 4/1 or shorter, so the market will be a good indicator of his chances, he’s also 3 from 9 in this grade and John Egan has already ridden him to victory.

And since 2009 in Class 4 to 6 Flat & A/W handicaps, Michael Wigham’s horses on losing streaks of more than 5 but less than 25 races and now racing off a lower mark than the one they last won off are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 39.7pts (+59.2% ROI), including…

  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 20.6pts (+73.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20.7pts (+94.2%)
  • and those now rated 8 to 15lbs lower than their last winning mark are 5/21 (23.8%) for 14.9pts (+71%)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, SkyBet & UniBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Yarmouth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *