Stat of the Day, 19th July 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

7.45 Yarmouth : Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (In touch, headway entering final furlong, soon joined leader, driven to lead post)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

4.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delft Dancer @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner… 

Why?

A 2 yr old filly, making her sixth start after four top 3 finishes including 1 win so far.

Her trainer Mark Johnston is in good form, with 23 winners from 105 (21.9% SR) yielding 50.8pts profit at an ROI of 48.3% over the last fortnight, whilst today’s jockey Silvestre de Sousa is in similarly good touch riding 16 winners from 78 (20.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+32.8% ROI) in the same 14 day period.

More generally, here at Leicester, Mark’s horses have won 15 of 46 (32.6% SR) for 22.4pts (+48.6% ROI) since the start of last season and these include…

• in handicaps : 12/33 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+77.5%)
• on Good to Firm : 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.68pts (+57%)
• females are 6/16 (37.5%) for 12pts (+75%)
• over 5 to 7 furlongs : 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.69pts (+60.6%)
• at Class 5 : 5/15 933.3%) for 7pts (+46.8%)

Meanwhile, also here at Leicester, Mr de Sousa has ridden 32 winners from 123 (26% SR) for profits of 64.7pts (+52.6% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season and these include…

• 23 wins from 79 (29.1%) for 57.8pts (+73.1%) over 5 to 7 furlongs
• 21 from 72 (29.2%) for 53.3pts (+74.1%) in handicaps
• 13 from 44 (29.6%) for 44.7pts (+101.7%) at Class 5
• 11 from 41 (26.8%) for 29.6pts (+72.3%) over 7f
• 9 from 312 (29%) for 32.4pts (+104.6%) on Good to Firm
• and 5 from 10 (50%) for 13.84pts (+138.4%) in Nursery races

Trainer and jockey also have a good record when they come together, winning 81 of 439 (18.5% SR) handicaps for 142.3pts (+32.4% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which…

• on the Flat (turf) : 65/348 (18.7%) for 167.4pts (+48.1%)
• with females : 30/158 (19%) for 133.6pts (+84.5%)
• over 7f to 1m : 29/127 (22.8%) for 24.3pts (+19.2%)
• in July : 20/63 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+34.8%)
• here at Leicester : 6/24 925%) for 4.74pts (+19.8%)

…and from the above : Johnston + de Sousa + females + Flat (turf) + 7f to 1m = 8/38 921.1% SR) for 4.88pts (+12.9% ROI), from which…

• in July : 3/5 960%) for 8.49pts (+169.8%)
• at Leicester : 2/4 950%) for 7.88pts (+197%)
• and in July here at Leicester = 1/1!

That 1 from 1 July/Leicester runner was when Martini Time won this very race back in 2015 and the same trainer/jockey combo also won this race last year, albeit with a male runner, Ventura Knight.

Like Delft Dancer today, Ventura Knight was also making his sixth career start that day and was also top weighted conceding several pounds all round : so the profile looks strong!

…and points towards…a 1pt win bet on Delft Dancer @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG, a price available from Bet365 & SkyBet respectively, as of 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!