Stat of the Day, 20th July 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

4.20 Leicester : Delft Dancer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Dwelt in rear, headway over 2f out, tracked leaders over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd towards finish )

Friday’s pick goes in the…

3.05 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOG

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In a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m5½f on Good To Firm ground worth £25876 to the winner… 

Why?

This 4 yr old was a winner over course and distance the last (and only previous) time she came to this venue, making her just one of two course winners in this field and the only one to have won at today’s trip and of course by default, the only previous course and distance winner!

She hails from an in-form yard, as Ralph Beckett’s charges have won 13 of 60 (21.5% SR) for 12.44pts (+20.7% ROI) over the last 30 days and 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 14.15pts (+58.9% ROI) in the last fortnight.

Moreover, in handicaps here at Newbury since the start of 2010, Ralph’s runners are 12 from 76 (15.8% SR) for 30.4pts (+40% ROI) and these include…

  • at trips of 1m to 1m6f : 11/44 (25%) for 43.04pts (+97.8%)
  • at odds of 3/1 to 11/1 (fairly safe to assume that’s where we’ll be today) : 11/43 (25.6%) for 44.04pts (+102.4%)
  • after a break of 16-25 days : 4/16 (25%) for 17.32pts (+108.25%)
  • and at Class 2 : 3/14 (21.4%) for 7.72pts (+55.1%)

…and from the above, over 1m to 1m6f at 3/1 to 11/1 = 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 57.04pts (+190.1% ROI), from which…

  • after 16-25 days since last run : 4/8 (50%) for 25.32pts (+316.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 3/6 (50%) for 15.72pts (+261.9%)
  • and whilst only one previous runner raced at Class 2, 16-25 days after their last run, it was a 9/1 winner!

Oisin Murphy is in the saddle today and I do like to see him up on the Beckett horses, as to date he is 39/201 (19.4% SR) for 68.6pts (+34.1% ROI) on them. Handicaps are my preferred medium for betting and in this sphere, the trainer/jockey combo are 21 from 81 (25.9% SR) for 79.8pts (+98.5% ROI), so well worth following!

And, of these 81 ‘cappers, those racing over 1m2f and beyond are 14/39 (35.9%) for 90pts (+230.8%) and from those longer distance runners, the ones sent off at 15/2 and shorter are 11 from 26 (42.3%) for 24.6pts (+94.6%).

At today’s odds, some other “tipsters” might be advising an E/W bet, but I’m not a massive fan of that approach (tempts fate and now expects a placer 😉 )

…so, the advice today is…a 1pt win bet on Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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