Stat of the Day, 21st July 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

3.05 Newbury : Mistress Quickly @ 7/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Held up in rear, headway on outside chasing leaders and hung left 3f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 2nd final 150 yards, no chance with winner, beaten by 2L)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

5.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rogue @ 10/3 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £9704 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has 3 wins and a place to his name from his last seven starts, including winning over today’s 7f trip under today’s jockey, the 7lb claimer Thore Hansen, on good to firm ground at Sandown LTO a fortnight ago.

He won by a good 2 lengths after making all, a tactic I feel would prove beneficial again today, based on the pace/draw make-up of this race.

Of his brief career so far, this horse…

• has 2 wins, 1 place from 6 over the 7f trip
• 2 wins, 1 place from 4 on good to firm
• 2 wins from 3 at Class 3
• 2 wins from 2 within 15 days of his last run
• 1 from 1 under today’s jockey

As a 3yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, he gets a very healthy 8lb weight for age allowance which when combined with his jockey’s 7lb claim means he gets weight ranging from 4lbs to 20lbs from each of his rivals today.

He’s trained by Richard Hannon, whose record with LTO winners running as the same class & distance within 25 days of that win = 20/61 (32.8% SR) for 29.7pts (+48.7% ROI) from which, those racing on the Flat (turf) have won 17 of 49 (34.7%) for 33.7pts (+68.8%)

And it is these 49 on the Flat which will provide some pointers for us today, as they are…

• 17/42 (40.5%) for 40.7pts (+96.9%) over 5 to 10 furlongs
• 14/33 (42.4%) for 43.5pts (+131.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 15/2
• 11/33 (33.3%) for 24.4pts (+74%) off a mark of 65-90
• 12/29 (41.4%) for 36pts (+124.1%) 11 to 20 days after their last run
• 10/27 (37%) for 25.4pts (+94.1%) as 3 yr olds
• 11/24 (45.8%) for 31.6pts (+131.5%) on good to form ground
• and 9/16 (56.25%) for 28.7pts (+179.3%) in June/July

…and from the above…2/3 yr olds @ 2/1 to 15/2 off OR of 65-90 over 5f to 10f on good to firm, 6 to 20 days since last run = 8/12 (66.6% SR) for 34.77pts at an ROI of some 289.8%! It’s an admittedly small sample size…

…but it does point towards…a 1pt win bet on Rogue @ 10/3 BOG, a price available from Betfair, BetVictor, Unibet & SkyBet at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.10 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!