Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

5.10 Newmarket : Rogue @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed narrowly inside final furlong, ran on but beaten by a head)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

7.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Desert Ace 9/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4033 to the winner…


OK, so I’m running late, so some of this might look a bit more like note form than usual, but trust me the usual amount of research has been done!

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding whose last 5 runs contain 2 visits to Beverley for a crack at this course and distance resulting in two wins. He won a Class 5 contest (similar to today) in mid-May before striking again here last time out 16 days ago.

That, however was at a higher grade than today and the jockey from LTO, Kevin Stott, retains the ride which is a positiver as he’s 13 from 78 (16.7% SR) for 23.1pts (+29.6% ROI) here at Beverley over the last six (incl this one) seasons, with a 12 from 60 record (20%) for 37.6pts (+62.6%) at 5 to 8.5 furlongs.

Then we come to trainer Paul Midgley and his ability to get his Flat handicappers to win back to back races, as since the start of the 2011 season his LTO winners are 28/186 (15.1% SR) for 136pts (+73.5%) in Flat handicaps, from which…

  • 5 to 6.5 f = 24/150 (16%) for 112.1pts (+75.2%)
  • 4-20 days since run = 21/109 (19.3%) for 149.2pts (+138.1%)
  • and at 5 to 6.5f, 4-20 dslr = 17*91 (18.7%) for 107.3pts (+119.2%)

And Paul is one of my go-to trainers for a micro I simply named “Late Summer Cappers”, basically in Paul’s case I look for his Class 4/5 Flat handicappers running in July-September. Since the start of July 2014, such runners are 34/200 (17% SR) for 91.9pts (+45.95% ROI), including…

  • over 5/6f : 34/189 (18%) for 102.9pts (+54.4%)
  • 11-25 dslr : 23/111 (20.7%) for 101.8pts (+91.7%)
  • on Good to Firm : 10/68 (14.7%) for 37.9pts (+55.7%)
  • LTO winners : 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.8pts (+99.3%)
  • 7 yr olds = 6/21 (28.6%) for 66.6pts (+317%)
  • and at Beverley : 4/15 (26.7%) for 37.4pts (+249.4%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Desert Ace 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.50pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.00 Beverley

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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