Stat of the Day, 24th July 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

7.00 Beverley : Desert Ace @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, stayed on one pace)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

6.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Classic Pursuit 9/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner…

Why?

Another nicely priced placer last night, but hopefully we’ll fare better with this 7 yr old gelding, who’s another one I’m hopeful of ending a long losing spell. This one has 13 defeats on the bounce since his last win, which just happened to be here at Nottingham at this grade over course and distance off today’s mark of 68.

After that win, he was raised to 96 and although his mark has been coming down with each defeat since, he’s always been weighted out of things. He showed positive signs of a return to form last time out, when a runner-up off today’s mark at Doncaster 12 days ago, over today’s trip/class/going.

Despite the long losing run, his overall record still shows 5 wins from 21 (23.8% SR) in the July/August period and 2 wins from 9 here at Nottingham, including 2 from 8 over course and distance.

His trainer Mick Appleby is 41 from 243 (16.9% SR) for 176.9pts (+72.8% ROI) in handicaps here at Nottingham since 2011, including…

  • 13 from 78 (16.7%) for 79.6pts (+102.1%) at Class 5
  • 11 from 43 (25.6%) for 54.8pts (+127.5%) over this 5f course and distance

Another positive is that that when jockey Robert Winston has ridden one of the Appleby handicappers priced at 11/1 and shorter, they have 8 wins from 40 (20% SR) for 11.08pts (+27.7% ROI) with the last season and a half showing 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 18.65pts (+98.2%)…

…and today’s simplistic approach suggests…a 1pt win bet on Classic Pursuit 9/2 BOGa price available from at least five firms at 5.30pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.30 Nottingham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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