Stat of the Day, 25th July 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

6.30 Nottingham : Classic Pursuit @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Keen, prominent, ridden 2f out, faded inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Full Suit 5/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a winner here at Lingfield last time out over today’s trip at Class 6 under today’s jockey off the same mark as today a fortnight ago, albeit on Good to Firm turf, so despite a change in surface it does suggest she’s in good nick.

The same can also be said for her trainer Archie Watson and jockey Oisin Murphy, as over the last fortnight Archie is 10/24 (41.7%), Oisin is 14/52 (26.9%) and together they are 4 from 4.

Over the past seven days, Archie is 4/9 (44.4%), Oisin is 4/19 (21.1%) and together they’re 2 from 2.

Archie’s individual record on the A/W has been fantastic pretty much from day 1 of his still relatively short training career and to date, his numbers are 73/321 (22.7% SR) for 53.1pts (+16.5% ROI) on the artificial surfaces here in the UK. That’s every runner backed blindly : no filters! However, if you wanted to reduce the number of bets, whilst keeping today’s pick relevant…

  • Polytrack runners are 47/213 (22.1%) for 53.5pts (+25.1%)
  • those last seen 4-20 days earlier are 42/166 (25.3%) for 57.9pts (+34.9%)
  • over trips of 9.5f to 13.5f : 27/101 (26.7%) for 80pts (+79.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 22/90 (24.4%) for 32.8pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 18/62 (29%) for 10.14pts (+16.4%)
  • LTO winners are 16/62 (25.8%) for 1.86pts (+3%)
  • and those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 15/51 (29.4% SR) for 1.84pts (+3.6%)

Obviously the main factor from the above is the track itself, so of those 90 who ran here at Lingfield…

  • those that were Archie’s only runner on this track that day : 13/38 (34.2%) for 49.1pts (+129.2%)
  • LTO winners : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • under Oisin Murphy : 6/13 (46.2%) for 8.3pts (+64%)
  • and Oisin riding Archie’s only runner on the Lingfield A/W track = 3/4 (75% SR) for 12pts at an ROI of 300%…

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Full Suit 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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