Wednesday’s Pick was…
2.20 Lingfield : Full Suit @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leaders in 3rd, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Muatadel @ 11/2 BOG
In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…
This 5yr old gelding is winless in almost a year, but is now back on a mark 3lbs lower than his last win 2lbs lower than when beaten by just a length over this course (at 5f, staying on) a week ago. The 5th placed horse, that day, Bondi Beach Boy has since gone on to win at Beverley three days ago, so that’s a positive, as is the extra furlong for our pick today.
By virtue of winning this race last year Muatadel is the only previous C&D winner in today’s field and that 1/1 C&D record has contributed to him having 2 wins and 2 places from 4 visits to this venue, whilst 2 of his 3 career wins are under today’s jockey Tony Hamilton.
Trainer Roger Fell has got his horses running well right now, as demonstrated by a 12 from 48 925% SR) for 28pts (+58.3% ROI) return over the last 30 days, whilst here at Doncaster, his career record reads 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 67pts (+209.4% ROI), from which…
- over 6/7f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 75.83pts (+421.3%)
- at C5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.4%)
- Tony Hamilton : 3/10 (30%) for 21.85pts (+218.5%)
- C5 @6/7f : 3/7 942.9%) for 24.85pts (+355%)
- Tony Hamilton @ 6/7f : 3/6 950%) for 25.85pts (+430.9%)
- Tony Hamilton @ C5 @ 6/7f : 3/4 (75%) for 27.85pts (696.3%)
And those trainer/jockey stats are unsurprising, as overall…Fell + Hamilton + Class 4/5 Flat Handicaps = 21/121 (17.4% SR) for 55.6pts (+45.9% ROI), including…
- 3-6 yr olds : 20/112 (17.9%) for 61pts (+54.5%)
- males : 19/106 (17.9%) for 52.7pts (+49.7%)
- 2-15 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 65.2pts (+100.4%)
- 3-7 previous runs that season : 18/61 (29.5%) for 102.4pts (+167.8%)
- June to August : 16/61 (26.2%) for 91.5pts (+150%)
- on Good to Firm : 12/55 (21.8%) for 15.5pts (+28.2%)
- rated (OR) 2lbs lower than LTO : 5/30 (16.6%) for 37.43pts (+124.8%)
- and over 6f : 5/25 (20%) for 22.25pts (+89%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Muatadel @ 11/2 BOG, a price available from Bet365 and SkyBet at 5.35pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!