Stat of the Day, 28th July 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

3.55 Uttoxeter : Notnow Seamus @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, 2nd from 3rd, led after 5th, well clear last, stayed on to win by 4L)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

7.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Gainsay 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

Keeping it simple today with this in-form 3 yr old filly, who has won three of her six handicap races to date and her course and distance win two starts ago makes her the only runner in this field to have won at either the track or this trip.

Her 3 from 6 handicap record includes…

  • 3 from 6 under today’s jockey Rob Hornby
  • 3 from 5 at this 7f trip
  • 2 from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 from 4 on good to firm ground
  • 1 from 1 here at Lingfield
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

Her trainer, Jonathan Portman is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past 30 days and 3 from 14 (21.4%) over the last fortnight, so we know the yard is ticking along nicely.

And it’s definitely worth noting that the Portman horses have won 5 of 9 (55.6% SR) on the turf track here at Lingfield this season, generating 10.4pts profit at an ROI of 115.5% and although that’s a fairly small sample size, further encouragement is gleaned via the following…

  • 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 11.4pts (+142.4%) in handicaps
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 12.4pts (+177.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 6.4pts (+91.7%) with Rob Hornby in the saddle

…and when Rob Hornby was riding a handicapper at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 = 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 9.42pts (+235.5% ROI)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Gainsay 4/1 BOGa price available from Betway & Hills at 6.50pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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