Stat of the Day, 30th July 2018
Saturday’s Pick was…
7.30 Lingfield : Gainsay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Behind, good headway on rail over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders, beaten by half a length)
Monday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Mecca’s Spirit @ 11/4 BOG
In a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £3493 to the winner…
Why?
This 3 yr old filly was a winner by a good 4 lengths over this course and distance under today’s jockey when last seen just 7 days ago.
What was more remarkable was that she completely missed the break and was left at the back from the start on a track/trip that normally favours her normal prominent racing style, so a better start today would really help.
She’s the only 3 yr old in the race so on top of her jockey’s 5lb claim, she gets a very healthy 7lbs weight for age allowance, meaning she’s getting weight from most of her rivals today.
Her trainer Michael Dods’ horses are running very well of late, winning 11 of 62 (17.7% SR) for 23.5pts (+38% ROI) over the last 30 days with an even more impressive 8 winners from 41 (19.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+72.3% ROI) over the last fortnight alone.
In addition to his recent good form, Michael’s record on the Flat with LTO winners now priced at 5/1 and shorter stands at 28/85 (32.9% SR) for 15.4pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season.
Also, since the start of the 2014 season, his Class 6 Flat runners turned back out after less than three weeks rest are 30 from 113 (26.6% SR) for 76.3pts (+67.5% ROI), whilst in that same 2014-18 timeframe, Michael Dods’ runners are 30/240 (12.5% SR) for 122.3pts (+51% ROI) here at Ayr with a 7 from 42 (16.6%) record at Class 6 yielding 18.3pts profit at an ROI of 43.7%
And finally for today…since the start of 2013 at Classes 4 to 6, horses who won over course and distance LTO by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 184/524 (35.1% SR) for 121.1pts (+23.1% ROI) when running at the same class as that win, from which…
- those now priced at 13/2 or shorter are 180/473 (38.1%) for 130.3pts (+27.6%)
- those racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 116/324 (35.8%) for 110.5pts (+34.1%)
- whilst those now priced at 13/2 or shorter, racing at trips shorter than 9 furlongs are 114/288 (39.6%) for 123.2pts (+42.8%)
…all of which gives us…a 1pt win bet on Mecca’s Spirit @ 11/4 BOG, a price available from Bet365, Betway, BetVictor, SkyBet & Hills at 6.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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