Stat of the Day, 31st July 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.00 Ayr : Mecca’s Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong. but beaten by 4L)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Emily Goldfinch 9/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap  for 3yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner…


A 5 yr old mare who won here over course and distance two starts ago in a higher grade than today and although she’s now rated 6lbs higher than that run, talented claimer Ryan Rossa takes the ride and is more than good value for a 3lb claim.

Both her career wins have been over a 7f trip, both were on good to firm ground (she has 2 wins and a place from 5 on this going) and one was of course over this track and trip.

Her trainer Phil McEntee’s handciappers racing over 6/7 furlongs are 40/301 (13.3% SR) for 109.3pts (+36.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include the following of relevance today…

  • 4/5 yr olds are 27/134 (20.1%) for 166.9pts (+124.6%)
  • 6-10 days since last run : 14/84 (16.6%) for 77.1pts (+91.8%)
  • on good to firm ground : 6/44 (13.6%) for 62.8pts (+142.7%)
  • at Yarmouth : 4/30 (13.3%) for 9.25pts (+30.8%)
  • and under Ryan Rossa : 2/8 (25%) for 4.26pts (+53.3%)

OR… you could have simply backed Phil’s 4/5 yr olds racing within 15 days of their last run for 20 winners from 84 (23.8% SR) and profits of 100.6pts (+119.7% ROI).

Meanwhile, jockey Ryan Rossa is still profitable to back blindly after nearly 500 rides, having won 60 of 468 (12.8% ROI) for profits of 39.9pts (+8.53% ROI), including 23 from 165 (13.9%) for 32.7pts (+19.8%) over trips of 6/7 furlongs, whilst this year alone in Class 6 handicaps over 6f to a mile for Phil McEntee, Ryan is 3 from 10 (30%) for 7.35pts (+73.5%), from which…

  • at odds of 5/2 to 6/1 : 3/6 (50%) for 11.35pts (+189.2%)
  • on the Flat : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • here at Yarmouth : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • on good to form ground : 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • and here at Yarmouth on good to firm ground at odds of 5/2 to 6/1 : 2/2 (100%) for 10.93pts (+546.5%)…

…suggesting…a 1pt win bet on Emily Goldfinch 9/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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