Stat of the Day, 1st August 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

1.40 Yarmouth : Emily Goldfinch @ 9/2 BOG 9th at 5/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon ridden, never on terms, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.00 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Soldier’s Call 11/4 BOG

In an 11-runner, Group 3, Flat contest  for 2yo (aka Molecomb Stakes) over 5f on Good ground worth £42532 to the winner…

Why?

This 2 yr old Colt has finished 211 in his three starts to date, all over a straight 5f and he’s 2 from 2 under today’s jockey Dan Tudhope whjo comes here in decent nick himself having ridden 24 winners from 100 rides on the last 30 days. This pair were winners of a big-field (28 ran!) Listed contest last time out at Ascot 39 days ago and the form of that event seems to be working out well enough.

Van Beethoven was 4th that day (2.75L behind) and he then won a Group 2 race a week later and was quite possibly a little unlucky to go down by 5L here yesterday in another Gr2 race. I’m not saying he would/should have won, but with a bit more luck in running, he could have at least made the frame. Well Done Fox was a further 2.25 lengths back in 8th place in the Ascot contest and he has since landed a Listed contest, a week after Van Beethoven won his Gr2.

Our boy is trained by Archie Watson, who has had a spectacular start to life as a trainer and backing every one of his runners over the last 19 months (ie since New Year’s Day 2017) has actually proved to be profitable. Now I’d never advocate backing every runner a trainer sends out, but if you had done, you’ve have backed 115 winners from 554 (20.8% SR) and your profits of 32.2pts would represent an ROI of 5.8%.

If you did want a simple “bet and forget” approach to Archie’s runners, non-handicappers would have been the way forward, as these are 63/250 (25.2% SR) for 56.8pts (+22.7% ROI) and offer a much more palatable return and if that’s still too many bets, you could filter them as follows…

  • 5 or fewer previous runs : 48/199 (24.1%) for 69pts (+34.7%)
  • 8/1 or shorter : 59/168 (35.1%) for 64pts (+38.1%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 48/165 (29.1%) for 55.2pts (+33.5%)
  • 10 to 40 days since last run : 44/148 (29.7%) for 43.4pts (+29.3%)
  • 2 yr olds  :34/140 (24.3%) for 35.2pts (+25.1%)
  • males : 35/113 (31%) for 42.5pts (+37.6%)
  • June to September : 35/112 (31.3%) for 74.3pts (+66.3%)
  • LTO winners : 12/36 (33.3%) for 5.2pts (+14.5%)
  • ridden by Dan Tudhope : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.9pts (+117.9%)

AND, from the above…

…2 yr olds with 5 or fewer previous runs now priced at 8/1 and shorter over 5 to 7 furlongs 10 to 40 days after their last run are 21/49 (42.9% SR) for 34.6pts (+70.6% ROI) and these include…

  • June-September : 18/36 950%) for 39.8pts (+110.5%)
  • males : 12/24 (50%) for 13.15pts (+54.8%)
  • males in June-September : 11/18 (61.1%) for 17.6pts (+97.9%)
  • LTO winners : 6/10 (60%) for 1.33pts (+13.3%)
  • LTO winners in June-September : 5/8 (62.5%) for 1.8pts (+22.5%)
  • male LTO winners : 4/6 (66.6%) for 0.76pts (+12.6%)
  • and male LTO winners in June-September : 3/4 (75%) for 1.22pts (+30.6%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Soldier’s Call 11/4 BOGa price available from Unibet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *