Stat of the Day, 2nd August 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

3.00 Goodwood : Soldier’s Call @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Went left and bumped rival start, in touch in mid-division, headway over 2 out, edged left over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong, no impression, lost 2nd close home)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.30 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Toy Theatre 4/1 BOG non-runner at 8:05am Reason: Going

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Fillies Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £7116 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was only beaten by a nose and a short head as she finished third last time out in this grade, but has previously won with today’s jockey at a higher level than today and the winner from LTO has already gone on to win again.

Trainer Mick Appleby is 7 from 35 (20% SR) over he last two weeks and 4/15 (26.7%) on the past week’s racing, whilst jockey Silvestre de Sousa has ridden 9 winners from 31 (29%) in the last seven days and his record on this quirky track stands at 35 from 129 (27.1% SR) for 67.8pts (+52.5% ROI), so he’s well worth following here, especially under today’s conditions, as…

  • on horses who last ran in the previous 60 days : 33/116 (28.5%) for 66.8pts (+57.6%)
  • in handicaps : 24/83 (28.9%) for 55.4pts (+66.7%)
  • on good ground : 21/66 (31.8%) for 60.1pts (+91.1%)
  • on females : 13/31 (41.9%) for 37.9pts (+122.3%)
  • over this 7f C&D : 12/31 (38.7%) for 27.6pts (+88.9%)
  • in August : 11/24 (45.8%) for 13.8pts (+57.7%)

Now, Silvestre has never actually ridden any of Mick Appleby’s horses here at Epsom, but elsewhere the partnership stands at 32/140 (22.9% SR) for 49.2pts (+35.2% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 24/104 (23.1%) for 65.2pts (+62.6%)
  • on the Flat : 19/77 (24.7%) for 46.4pts (+60.3%)
  • with females : 9/34 (26.5%) for 14.9pts (+43.7%)
  • and in 2018 : 9/28 (32.1%) for 28.6pts (+102.1%)

and females priced at 9/4 to 12/1 on the Flat are 4/16 (25%) for 12.1pts (+75.6%) including Toy Theatre’s win at Newmarket last September in a Class 3 contest.

…but first…a 1pt win bet on Toy Theatre 4/1 BOGa price available from more than a half dozen firms at 5.35pm on Wednesday (***9/2 available from both BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.00pm***), but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.30 Epsom

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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