Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

7.30 Epsom : Toy Theatre @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 8.05am due to the going)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

2.25 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Threading 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Group 3 contest (Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes) for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56710 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is rated (OR) 1 to 15 lbs better than the four of her five rivals who’ve got an official mark, but as the only filly in the contest gets a 3lb weight pull from all five, putting her at a great advantage as she seeks a fourth win in eight starts.

Her current 3 from 7 record is decent if not exceptional, but does include of note today…

  • 3 from 4 when not at Newmarket (perhaps she’s not suited there)
  • 2 from 3 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 2 from 2 in August
  • wins on Gd to Fm / Gd to Soft & Soft suggest no going issues
  • has 2 wins at Class 1, inc a Gr 2
  • has won over 1m
  • has won here at Goodwood
  • and has won under jockey James Doyle

Her trainer, Mark Johnston, thrives here at Goodwood and prior to hitting two winners from six runners yesterday, his record at this venue stood at 82/543 (15.1% SR) for 266.8pts (+49.1% ROI) since the start of the 2008 season and these include of relevance today…

  • over the last five (inc this one) seasons : 44/269 (16.4%) for 143pts (+53.1%)
  • at 11-25 days since last run : 46/261 (17.6%) for 237.9 (+91.2%)
  • on good ground : 41/240 (17.1%) for 158.6pts (+66.1%)
  • in August : 23/152 (15.1%) for 95.2pts (+62.6%)
  • in non-handicaps : 29/151 (19.2%) for 69.2pts (+45.9%)
  • over 1m/1m1f : 16/79 (20.3%) for 76pts (+96.2%)
  • at Class 1 : 12/71 (16.9%) for 26.4pts (+37.2%)
  • at Group 3 : 4/26 (15.4%) for 19.7pts (+75.6%)
  • and with James Doyle in the saddle : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.6pts (+174%)

AND…over the last five seasons with horses on good ground, 11-25 days after their last run : 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 88.4pts (+188.1% ROI) with a Class 1 record of 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 12.7pts (+141.2%)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Threading 5/2 BOGa price widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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