Stat of the Day, 6th August 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

7.35 Lingfield : Dr Doro @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leader centre, led this group over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

3.50 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Sword of Fate 7/2 BOG

In a 4-runner, Class 3 Novices Chase for 5yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9115 to the winner… 


This 5 yr old gelding comes here in fine form, having won three of his last four starts and is 3 from 3 over fences, including a course and distance win here last time out a month ago.

That race was a similar Class 3 one to today’s and 5lb claimer Tommie O’Brien retains the ride on the horse that has won 6 of 11 races so far, including…

  • 5/8 going left handed (3/3 over fences)
  • 4/6 on Good ground (2/2 over fences)
  • 5/5 in fields of 1-7 runners (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/5 at the age of 5 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in non-handicaps
  • 2/4 at Class 3 (2/2 over fences)
  • 2/4 under Tommie O’Brien (1/1 over fences)
  • 3/3 in chases
  • 1/1 here at Newton Abbot (in a chase)
  • 1/1 over 2m5f (in a chase)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (in a chase)

His trainer Tom Lacey has been a revelation over the last couple of years or so and is one of the rare breed of trainers who have been profitable to back blindly in recent years. In fact since the start of 2016, his runners are 72/326 (22.1%) for 246.7pts (+75.7% ROI) and these include of relevance today…

  • make runners at 58/257 (22.6%) for 224.2pts (+87.2%)
  • within 75 days of their last run = 54/235 (23%) for 146.5pts (+62.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 33/141 (23.4%) for 152.6pts (+108.2%)
  • with Tommie O’Brien : 13/62 (21%) for 71.2pts (+114.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/57 (22.8%) for 47pts (+82.4%)
  • and over fences : 15/49 (30.6%) for 13.4pts (+27.2%)

AND…from the above : 5 yr old males running within 60 days of their last run are 23/86 (26.7% SR) for 118.3pts (+137.5% ROI)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Sword of Fate 7/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Sunday whilst there was plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newton Abbot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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