Monday’s Pick was…
3.50 Newton Abbot : Sword of Fate @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 6/4 (Led, driven and headed before 2 out, weakened between last 2)
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Stay Classy @ 9/2 BOG
In a 9-runner, Class 5 Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner…
This 2 yr old filly was a winner last time out just 15 days ago, staying on well and doing all her best work in the closing stages of a Class 4 contest over 6f, suggesting that an extra furlong might well suit her, whilst a drop in class should also help.
Tom Queally retains the ride from that win and the hood she wore for the first time that day is redeployed.
She had Lively Lydia a length and a half back in third place that day, but the latter reappeared yesterday at Windsor to make all in a 5 length victory, so that’s another positive, as is the general recent good form of her yard, as Richard Spencer’s horses are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 15pts (+44.1% ROI) over the last 30 days, including…
- on the Flat : 8/27 (27.6%) for 17.94pts (+61.9%)
- over 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/27 (25.9%) for 17.06pts (+63.2%)
- 2 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.78pts (+98.9%)
- at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 8/16 (50%) for 14.89pts (+93%)
- with Tom Q in the saddle : 4/15 (26.7%) for 0.6pts (+4%)
- females are 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.65pts (+135.8%)
- at Class 5 : 5/10 (50%) for 20.25pts (+202.5%)
- and over 7f : 3/10 (30%) for 2.26pts (+22.6%)
and whilst the Richard Spencer / Tom Queally angle has only been marginally profitable over the last month, the strike rate of 26.7% is both (a) good and (b) not a real surprise to me as since the start of this year the partnership has 8 winners from 36 (22.2% SR) for a more palatable/satisfactory 16.95pts profit at an ROI of 47.1% and these 36 runners include…
- on the Flat : 6/25 (24%) for 23.43pts (+93.7%)
- at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.95pts (+120.6%)
- 2 yr olds are 6/24 (25%) for 20.46pts (+85.2%)
- on good to firm ground : 4/18 (22.2%) for 17.26pts (+95.9%)
- at Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.4pts (+53.3%)
- with horses stepping up in trip : 2/10 (20%) for 6.35pts (+63.5%)
- and those dropping down a grade are 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.16pts (+88%)
…whilst 2 yr olds on the Flat at odds of 10/1 and shorter are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 28.93pts (+263% ROI)…
…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Stay Classy @ 9/2 BOG, a price available from half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!