Tuesday’s Pick was…
3.55 Newbury : Stay Classy @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch in mid-division, switched left and headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, led narrowly well inside final furlong, headed close home and beaten by a neck)
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Swendab @ 10/3 BOG
In a 7-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner…
This might be a low grade fixture-fulfilling type of affair, but trainers/owners don’t keep 10 yr olds in training unless they think they can do themselves justice and Swendab is proving there’s still plenty of life in his legs. After all, he’s only had 130 races to date!
130 races or not, he’s back in form and today’s conditions look well suited for him, as I’ll explain shortly. He was just touched off by a head here over course and distance two starts ago, before winning another Class 6, 5f affair at Ffos Las last time six days ago by 2 lengths after making all and could easily have won by further that day, so to be effectively just 4lbs worse off in what looks a slightly weaker race on paper might not be enough to anchor him, plus he has won off higher marks in the past, including over this C&D.
As many late developers do, Swendab failed to win as a 2 yr old, but since the age of 3, he has won his fair share : 17 from 125 (13.6% SR) to be precise and blindly backing him would have made a marginal profit of 2.92pts (+2.34% ROI), but backing him under the following dozen relevant angles (all of which are in play today) has been more than worthwhile…
- in handicaps : 17/121 (14.1%) for 6.92pts (+5.72)
- 4-20 days since last run : 14/80 (17.5%) for 23.76pts (+29.7%)
- off a mark (OR) of 55-70 : 12/77 (15.6%) for 26.88pts (+34.9%)
- over 5f : 13/71 (18.3%) for 22.35pts (+31.5%)
- on a straight track : 10/59 (17%) for 12pts (+20.3%)
- at Class 6 : 7/47 (14.9%) for 24.37pts (+51.9%)
- at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/43 (30.2%) for 26.91pts (+62.6%)
- in fields of 4-7 runners : 8/38 (21.1%) for 8.15pts (+21.5%)
- 4-9 days since last run : 6/26 (23.1%) for 7.87pts (+30.3%)
- at Chepstow : 3/19 (15.8%) for 9.18pts (+48.3%)
- in August : 6/18 (33.3%) for 13.51pts (+75%)
- and after a win LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.86pts (+86.6%)
…AND…in 5f handicaps off a mark of 50-70 with less than 3 weeks rest = 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 42.02pts (+113.6% ROI), from which since the start of last season ie as a 9/10 yr old : 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.11pts (+161.4%)!!
His trainer John O’Shea is also in good touch right with 3 winners from 5 over the last fortnight, whilst his record on the Flat with LTO winners since 2011 stands at 18/50 (36% SR) for 44.9pts (+89.8% ROI) and whilst that’s not a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting angles that are pertinent today…
- in handicaps : 17/49 (34.7%) for 42.1pts (+85.9%)
- less than 3 weeks since last run : 17/41 (41.5%) for 50pts (+121.9%)
- at same distance as LTO win : 11/25 (44%) for 29.65pts (+118.6%)
- at same class as LTO win : 11/24 (45.8%) for 30.5pts (+127%)
- at Chepstow : 9/21 (42.9%) for 26.6pts (+126.6%)
- using a jockey claiming 5lbs : 7/19 (36.8%) for 19.66pts (+103.5%)
- in August : 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+108%)
- at Class 6 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 18.75pts (+125%)
- and over 5f : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.3pts (+111.8%)
…AND…from the above…Chepstow handicappers at the same class/distance as an LTO win in the previous three weeks = 4/4 (100% SR) for 19.55pts (+488.75% ROI), interestingly all ridden by claimers!
…which all points to…a 1pt win bet on Swendab @ 10/3 BOG, a price Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were slightly better @ 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!