Wednesday’s Pick was…
3.30 Chepstow : Swendab @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led after 1f, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG
In an 8-runner, Class 5, Fillies’ Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner…
This 3 yr old filly might well be a seven-race maiden but having made the frame on 5 (3 of which were at a higher grade than today) of those 7 outings, she certainly is due a win and she ran particularly well last time out just six days ago and it is hoped that a first time visor might just eke a little more out of her here to break her duck.
Her trainer Ian Williams has been successful at this venue over the years, saddling up 27 winners from 176 (15.3% SR) for profits of 40pts (+22.% ROI) since 2008 and these include…
- 23/75 (30.7%) for 59.48pts (+79.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
- 16/60 (26.7%) for 53.27pts (+88.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
- 10/52 (19.2%) for 39.83pts (+76.6%) on Good to Firm
- 8/45 (17.8%) for 31.5pts (+70%) at Class 5
- and 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.41pts (+87.6%) after resting for 10 days or less
This quick turnaround of a horse last seen 6 days ago is a successful strategy adopted by Ian Williams who has had 136 winners from 545 (24.95% SR) for 224.8pts (+41.25% ROI) profit since 2010 with horses turned back out just 4 to 10 days after their last run (resting not rusting, I call it) and of these 545 quick returners…
- Handicaps : 113/438 (25.8%) for 253.8pts (+58%)
- Flat : 50/178 (28.1%) for 69.2pts (+38.9%)
- Flat Handicaps : 44/155 (28.4%) for 70.43pts (+45.44%)
…and finally, it;s worth looking at Ian’s record with horses wearing a visor for the first time, as since 2010, this approach has found him 19 winners from 100 (19% SR) and profits of 87.19pts (+87.19% ROI), from which…
- Handicaps : 15/84 (17.9%) for 86.7pts (+103.2%)
- Flat : 12/43 (27.9%) for 91.7pts |(+213.2%)
- Flat Handicaps : 9/38 (23.7%) for 89.39pts (+235.2%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG, a price offered by 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.13pm on Wednesday. Bet365 however are offering 11/4 BOG so grab that if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!