Thursday’s Pick was…
5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)
Friday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG
In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner…
This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following…
- 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
- 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
- 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
- 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
- 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
- 2 wins from 3 in July / August
- 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
- 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
- and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)
Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including…
- 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
- 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
- 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
- 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
- 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
- 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
- 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
- and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton
As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is…
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
- 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
- and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap
And finally for this one (phew!)… Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!