Stat of the Day, 14th August 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

2.40 Ayr : Acadian Angel @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, one pace inside final furlong)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

5.15 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Air of York 3/1 BOG

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In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Soft ground worth £3817 to the winner…


I’m going to keep this relatively short, sweet and hopefully simple….

Here we have a 6yr old with 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from his last eight starts, so he’s certainly in decent nick and he’s got a previous soft ground win to his name.

His trainer John Flint isn’t the most well known on the circuit, doesn’t have the largest string of horses and CANNOT be followed religiously in the hope of making a profit, but like so many of his profession, he has found himself a niche where he is (a) successful and (b) profitable to follow and in John’s case, we’re going to look at his record in lower grade shorter distance Flat handicaps as a way in to this race, because…

…2012-18 / John Flint / Class 5+6 / Flat handicaps / 5 to 10 furlongs = 16 from 104 (15.4% SR) for 63.4pts (+60.9% ROI) : compare this to his overall record on the Flat in that period of those not fitting the above which stands at 12/147 (8.16% SR) for a loss of 52.6pts (-35.8% ROI), showing how much better he does in this area.

And of those 104 runners…

  • those last seen 1 to 7 weeks earlier : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 86.4pts (+106.6%) this should probably have been the cut-off for the angle above
  • July-October : 14/63 (22.2%) for 72.7pts (+115.4%)
  • using a 3lb claimer in the saddle  :5/20 (25%) for 22.1pts (+110.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.5pts (+20.5%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/22 (22.7%) for 31.3pts (+142.2%)

AND…in July to October after 1 to 7 weeks rest = 14/57 (24.6% SR) for 78.7pts (+138% ROI), which if I’m honest is a more than acceptable stat to hang a bet on, but if you wanted that breaking down, here’s how it looks under today’s conditions…

  • 6 yr olds  :4/15 (26.7%) for 14.5pts (+96.6%)
  • 3lb claimer : 5/13 (38.5%) for 29.1pts (+224.1%)
  • Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.6pts (+57.4%)
  • 6yo + 3lb claimer : 2/5 (40%) for 5.2pts (+104%)
  • 6yo on Soft : 1/2 (50%) for 1.66pts (+83%)
  • 3lb claimer on Soft : 1/1 (100%) for 2.66pts (+266%)
  • 6yo + 3lb claimer on Soft : 1/1 (100%) for 2.66pts (+266%)

And today’s jockey claiming the 3lb allowance is the very talented Nicola Currie who is riding really well right now having clocked up 5 winners and 5 placers from her 20 rides over the last week…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Air of York 3/1 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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