Stat of the Day, 16th August 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

5.30 Kempton : Pot Luck @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon one pace, no extra closing stages)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.10 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Kinglami 11/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a decent third over course and distance 8 days ago, only beaten by just over half a length on ground that was probably on the quick side for him. Back on his favoured soft ground off the same mark, I fancy to get himself (and me in the process!) back to winning ways.

His overall profile says this is exactly the kind of race he wants as from an already decent record on the Flat reading 9 from 46 (19.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+47.6% ROI) profit, he is…

  • 9/43 (20.9%) for 24.9pts (+57.9%) on a straight track
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 29.9pts (+78.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 35.9pts (+112.2%) at Class 4-6
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 25.1pts (+83.7%) over 6f
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 27.4pts (+105.3%) from June to August
  • 6/20 (30%) for 29.3pts (+146.5%) in 2017/18
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 23.6pts (+130.8%) at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.5pts (+149.7%) on Soft ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.9pts (+249%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/5 (60%) for 22.8pts (+456%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 16.3pts (+326%) under jockey Ryan Rossa

He is trained by John O’Shea, whose Flat runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 12.98pts (+76.4% ROI) over the last 30 days, with Ryan Rossa riding all four winners from just nine starts (44.4% SR) for 20.98pts profit at an ROI of 233.1%.

And overall when using Ryan to ride his Flat handicappers, Mr O’Shea’s runners are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+169.1%), from which…

  • here at Chepstow : 4/10 (40%) for 16.94pts (+169.4%)
  • with Ryan claiming 3lbs : 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.28pts (+191.9%)
  • and with Ryan claiming 3lbs here at Chepstow : 2/5 (40%) for 14.1pts (+282%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Kinglami 11/4 BOGa price offered by over a dozen firms at 6.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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