Stat of the Day, 17th August 2018

Thursday’s Pick was…

7.10 Chepstow : Kinglami @ 11/4 BOG Still to run (Prominent in centre, chased winner inside final furlong, no extra and lost 2 places towards finish : Undone by the ground drying out IMO)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

8.05 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Major Partnership 3/1 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £9704 to the winner…

Why?

Matt stepping in for Chris for the day, and looking at this good class competitive handicap, where the selection may have been awarded a lenient mark even though that mark is 93.

Saeed bin Suroor’s Iffraaj colt makes his handicap bow, his trainer having saddled 76 horses for the first time in a handicap in the last two years. 23 of them have won (30.26%) for a level stakes profit of £18 (A/E 1.17, IV 3.01 – that is, they show a positive expectation and are just better than 3x more likely to win than an average handicap debutant).

The trainer is in excellent form, too, with 6 winners from 17 runners in the past fortnight (35.29%, +£5.37).

Major Partnership was a winner last time out, in a novice stakes, and his trainer can boast a 29.37% hit rate in the last two years when attempting to follow up a last day success.

bin Suroor legs up Pat Cosgrave for this one, the pair having been in excellent fettle when teaming up recently: in the past month, they’ve scored together on five of ten horses (50%).

From a pace/form perspective – not that such deliberations have a place in SotD! – Major Partnership should get a nice tow into the race from Statuario and London either side, and he appreciated ease in the ground when a facile winner last time.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Major Partnership 3/1 BOGa price offered by four firms (as at 6.15pm on Thursday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chepstow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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