Stat of the Day, 18th August 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

8.05 Newmarket : Major Partnership @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden and every chance 2f out, edged left approaching final furlong, one pace and lost 2nd towards finish)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Staxton 5/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £28012 to the winner…


A 3 yr old colt who was a winner last time out 21 days ago in a similar Class 2 handicap under today’s jockey (PJ McDonald) on good to soft round over this very course and distance, making him the only previous course and distance winner in this field today.

In addition to prior C&D success, a quick look at the pace/draw tabs on the Geegeez racecards (I do take a look sometimes 😉 ), we are advised that prominent runners (like our pick) drawn low (we’re in box 1) tend to so well in this sort of contest, so that’s another positive.

As is trainer Tim Easterby’s record over the last 5 seasons in UK handicaps with horses who not only won last time out but also have at least one course and distance win under their belts.

Such animals are 12 from 59 (20.3% SR) for 31pts (+52.5% ROI) with those running on the Flat winning 12 of 52 (23.1%) for 38pts (+73%), from which…

  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 10/39 (25.6%) for 42.6pts (+109.2%)
  • males are 8/39 (20.5%) for 31.5pts (+80.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 22.6pts (+150.4%)
  • on good to soft ground : 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.9pts (+154.3%)
  • competing for prizes of £12.5k to £30k : 4/10 (40%) for 27.56pts (+275.6%)
  • over 6f : 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.3pts (+166.4%)

and finally, PJ McDonald is in the saddle as I mentioned earlier and it would be remiss of me not to mention his record of 10 wins from 42 rides (23.8% SR) on the July course over the last two seasons that have generated profits of 23.5pts at an ROI of 55.9%…

…all pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Staxton 5/1 BOGa price offered by at least nine firms (as at 8.55pm on Friday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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