Stat of the Day, 21st August 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.50 Leicester : Ninjago @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway under pressure inside final 2f, soon switched right and ridden, stayed on to chase winner well inside final furlong, always held)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

4.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner…


One of only two former course and distance winners in today’s race, having prevailed here over track and trip LTO 13 days ago.

Our boy has certainly made a good start to handicap life, making the frame in all seven efforts, winning twice, including that LTO win under today’s jockey Nicola Currie. Nicola is generally very good value for her 3lb claim and I’m happy to see her booked for this ride on a track she fares well at.

In fact, her record here stands at 11 winners from 72 (15.3% SR) for profits of 57.1pts at an ROI of 79.4% and these rides include of relevance today…

  • in 2018 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 68.6pts (+167.2%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 80.5pts (+223.6%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs in 2018 : 8/21 (38.1%) for 88.6pts (+421.7%)
  • and over this 7f course and distance this year : 4/8 (50%) for 42.9pts (+536.2%)

Meanwhile, our trainer Joseph Tuite’s record on handicaps over the last 22 months with LTO winners stands at 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 20.22pts (+50.6% ROI) profit, including of note today…

  • for prizes of less than £8,000 : 13/35 (37.1%) for 25.22pts (+72.1%)
  • males : 11/34 (32.4%) for 18.55pts (+54.6%)
  • on the A/W : 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.07pts (+77.6%)
  • June to August  6/16 (37.5%) for 19.09pts (+119.3%)
  • over 6f to 1m : 5/15 (33.3%) for 9.23pts (+61.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.37pts (+49.1%)
  • within 14 days of that LTO win : 6/13 (46.2%) for 9.83pts (+75.7%)
  • and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.47pts (+249.1%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOGa price offered by at least a dozen firms (as at 7.35pm on Monday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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