Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

4.00 Kempton : Fortune and Glory @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Persian Moon 5/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 3 contest (Tattersalls Acomb Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £56710 to the winner…


This 2yr old colt couldn’t be in better form, coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Yarmouth and then here over course and distance 23 days ago making him the only previous course (and ultimately C&D) winner in today’s contest.

He has winning and placed form on good to firm ground and he’s 1 from 1 under today’s jockey, the excellent Silvestre de Sousa, whose 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes on Tuesday took his 30 day form to 27/111 (24.3% SR) and his 14 day record to 11 from 47 (23.4%).

More long-term (ie since 2010), SdS is 210/671 (31.3% SR) for 123.3pts (+18.4% ROI) on horses trained by the wily Mark Johnston that were sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 and from these 671 runners, of relevance today…

  • those last seen 4-90 days ago are 180/568 (31.7%) for 99.5pts (+17.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 86/247 (34.8%) for 45.75pts (+18.5%)
  • on 2yr olds : 80/229 (34.9%) for 57.8pts (+25.2%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 77/222 (34.7%) for 79.27pts (+35.7%)
  • over 7/8f : 63/188 (33.5%) for 69.75pts (+37.1%)
  • LTO Winners are 49/151 (32.5%) for 18pts (+11.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/38 (29%) for 8.67pts (+22.8%)
  • and here at York : 5/23 (21.7%) for 2.54pts (+11%)

…whilst since the start of last season, Mark’s runners have won 12 of 76 (15.8% SR) here at York, generating profits of 29.23pts at an ROI of 38.5pts, including…

  • in non-handicaps : 11/31 (35.5%) for 70.2pts (+226.4%)
  • 2yr olds are 9/28 (32.1%) for 57.8pts (+206.4%)
  • LTO winners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 12.91pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 1 : 4/17 (23.5%) for 40.04pts (+235.5%)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Persian Moon 5/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 6.20pm on Tuesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.25 York

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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