Tuesday’s Pick was…
4.00 Kempton : Fortune and Glory @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Persian Moon @ 5/1 BOG
In an 8-runner, Group 3 contest (Tattersalls Acomb Stakes) for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £56710 to the winner…
This 2yr old colt couldn’t be in better form, coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Yarmouth and then here over course and distance 23 days ago making him the only previous course (and ultimately C&D) winner in today’s contest.
He has winning and placed form on good to firm ground and he’s 1 from 1 under today’s jockey, the excellent Silvestre de Sousa, whose 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes on Tuesday took his 30 day form to 27/111 (24.3% SR) and his 14 day record to 11 from 47 (23.4%).
More long-term (ie since 2010), SdS is 210/671 (31.3% SR) for 123.3pts (+18.4% ROI) on horses trained by the wily Mark Johnston that were sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 and from these 671 runners, of relevance today…
- those last seen 4-90 days ago are 180/568 (31.7%) for 99.5pts (+17.5%)
- in non-handicaps : 86/247 (34.8%) for 45.75pts (+18.5%)
- on 2yr olds : 80/229 (34.9%) for 57.8pts (+25.2%)
- on Good to Firm ground : 77/222 (34.7%) for 79.27pts (+35.7%)
- over 7/8f : 63/188 (33.5%) for 69.75pts (+37.1%)
- LTO Winners are 49/151 (32.5%) for 18pts (+11.9%)
- at Class 1 : 11/38 (29%) for 8.67pts (+22.8%)
- and here at York : 5/23 (21.7%) for 2.54pts (+11%)
…whilst since the start of last season, Mark’s runners have won 12 of 76 (15.8% SR) here at York, generating profits of 29.23pts at an ROI of 38.5pts, including…
- in non-handicaps : 11/31 (35.5%) for 70.2pts (+226.4%)
- 2yr olds are 9/28 (32.1%) for 57.8pts (+206.4%)
- LTO winners are 6/21 (28.6%) for 12.91pts (+61.5%)
- and at Class 1 : 4/17 (23.5%) for 40.04pts (+235.5%)
…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Persian Moon @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by most firms (as at 6.20pm on Tuesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!