Thursday’s Pick was…
3.35 York : Coronet @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, driven and stayed on to 2nd towards finish)
Friday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Gateway @ 7/2 BOG
In a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £6469 to the winner…
Well, I was tempted to stay at York with Shine So Bright in the 3.00, but I’ve gone for this 3 yr old making just his fourth start overall and his handicap debut today.
Placed in all three runs so far, culminating in a comfortable 3 length victory at Ayr 17 days ago when full of running late on over 7.5f, I’d guess that an extra furlong shouldn’t undo him and I think an opening mark of 76 might prove lenient on handicap debut.
He’s trained by headline maker Mark Johnston, who landed a nice winner at York on Thursday, and has a great record on the July track with 45 winners from 236 (19.1% SR) in handicaps here since 2012 resulting in punter profits of 105.5pts at a very healthy ROI of 44.7%.
Of note today from those 236 July track ‘cappers…
- those running off a mark of 65 to 95 are 43/208 (20.7%) for 115.4pts (+55.5%)
- male runners are 33/162 (20.4%) for 105.8pts (+65.3%)
- 3 yr olds are 31/160 (19.4%) for 92.9pts (+58.1%)
- those last seen 11-60 days earlier are 28/137 (20.4%) for 115.9pts (+84.6%)
- on Good to Firm ground : 24/124 (19.4%) for 91.4pts (+73.7%)
- in 3yo only contests : 19/92 (20.7%) for 95.4pts (+103.7%)
- LTO winners are 10/55 (18.2%) for 2.66pts (+4.8%)
- at Class 4 : 13/42 (31%) for 20.4pts (+48.6%)
- and over this 1 mile C&D : 7/38 (18.4%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%)
…AND…from the above : 3 yr old males rated 65-95 11-60 days after their last run are 17 from 60 (28.3% SR) for 100.2pts (+167% ROI) profit.
I was pleasantly surprised to see James Doyle’s name on the racecard to ride this one, as I thought he might have stayed at York to follow up the 2 winners he’s already had at this year’s Ebor meeting, but York’s loss is Newmarket’s (and our!) gain, as he’s clearly a man in form with a 14-day record of 8 from 31 (25.8% SR) and a 7-day return of 7/24 (29.2% SR).
That said, his past record on this track is probably why he has a full book of rides here, aiming to improve upon his 54 winners from 230 (23.5% SR) rides here over the last 6 seasons that have generated 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 28.9%.
Those 230 rides include of relevance today…
- on horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 : 50/177 (28.3%) for 79.2pts (+44.7%)
- at Class 4 : 26/75 (34.7%) for 65pts (+86.7%)
- in August : 20/71 (28.2%) for 33.7pts (+47.4%)
- on Class 4 horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 : 23/57 (40.4%) for 44.3pts (77.8%)
- on horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 in August : 19/55 (34.6%) for 28.7pts (+52.2%)
- and on Class 4 horses priced 5/6 to 9/1 in August : 11/23 (47.8%) for 24.8pts (+107.8%)
Note : these James Doyle stats also apply to Ice Gala (2.05 race), Sangarius (3.15) and Black Lotus (3.45)…
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Gateway @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power (as at 6.20pm on Thursday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!