Stat of the Day, 25th August 2018

Friday’s Pick was…

2.40 Newmarket: Gateway @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, ridden over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Chris is off for a week or so now, so it’s Matt in the chair until Monday week, hoping to turn the tide on what has been a very tough run for SotD followers. Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.40 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Look Around 9/2 BOG

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In a 9-runner, Group 3 for 2yo fillies over 7f on Good ground worth £28,355 to the winner… 

Why?

There isn’t a hotter trainer on the planet right now than Andrew Balding who, prior to Friday, had saddled 15 winners and 31 placed horses from 60 runners in the past fortnight. As I write on Friday, he’s already had two winners and FIVE more seconds, with a couple of excellent chances this evening.

The problems are twofold: first he’s hitting silver rather than gold a fair bit, and second he has a lot of runners on Saturday: 13 to be precise. It’s down at Goodwood we head, where Balding legs up Oisin Murphy thrice, the most fancied of which is Beat The Bank in the Group 2 Celebration Mile. As obvious as his chance is, 11/8 is too short for this column even when we’re desperate for a change of luck.

Instead, I’m very interested in the chance of the juvenile filly, Look Around.

We know then that Andrew Balding has his team in majestic form – those 15 winners from 60 in the past fortnight were worth 80.09 points profit at an A/E of 1.53!

Balding’s record with last time out winners is also excellent: in the last two years, 40 of the 190 last day winners he’s sent out have gone in again for a level stakes profit of 18.13 points.

A major beneficiary of the partnership has been Murphy, who added a win on the smart-looking Urban Aspect to runners up places on both Count Octave (behind the brilliant Stradivarius, well clear of the rest) and Indomitable in the richest maiden in Europe this (Friday) afternoon. In the last fortnight, including Friday, they’re five from 17 (29.41%), for 15.33 points profit.

The filly herself is a daughter of first season sire, Kingman. He’s already recorded eight winners from 40 runners (20%), the most recent of which was the impressive Sangarius at Newmarket this afternoon. For her part, Look Around has won her last two at seven furlongs, most recently in Listed class, meaning there are no worries about trip and few about class…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Look Around 9/2 BOGa price offered by William Hill and Boylesports (as at 6pm on Friday), 4/1 generally. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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