Stat of the Day, 27th August 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

2.40 Goodwood: Look Around @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Held up, badly hampered soon after start, never dangerous after)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

4.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Chickenfortea @ 11/2 BOG

In a 13 runner Class 5 6f handicap, worth £5424 to the winner… 

Why?

Chickenfortea represents trainer Eric Alston, whose record on the Southwell sands is excellent. In the last five years, Alston has had five winners from 21 starters (23.81% SR) for +15.5pts profit. He runs two on Monday, the other being Jabbarockie which also has a good chance in a very open race.

Run style is material over six furlongs at Southwell. Indeed, in 12+ runner handicaps over that trip since 2009, 20 of the 90 horses to lead early (or share the lead) went on to win. That’s 22.2% front-running winners, for a profit at SP of £107.58 at an Impact Value (i.e. how much more likely than generally in the sample) of 2.79 – that is, nearly three times more likely to win having led early than an average Southwell 6f handicap runner.

Chickenfortea is drawn 3, with no pace inside him, and the other possible early speed candidates drawn in double figure ‘car park’ stalls. He has led, or shared the lead, in each of his last eleven starts, and again looks to have the chance to get out and stay out.

Alston’s record with sprinters at Southwell is also very good: he’s three 3 from 13, 3 more placed, on his rare forays in the last five years, and they were profitable to the tune of +8.5 (65.38% ROI)…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Chickenfortea @ 11/2 BOGa price offered by BetVictor and Bet365 as at 8pm Sunday night. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

click here for the betting on the 4.10 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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