Stat of the Day, 28th August 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

4.10 Southwell: Chickenfortea @ 11/2 BOG 8th at 7/2 (Chased leaders, weakened over 1f out)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.50 Chelmsford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

On Route @ 11/4BOG

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In an 8 runner Class 5 5f handicap, worth £4787 to the winner… 

Why?

Sir Mark Prescott is known for improving horses on their first run in a handicap and, in spite of that being common knowledge, there is still some value to be had with such runners. Indeed, Sir Mark has made a profit at starting price in all bar one of the last six years with his modus operandi, the overall total since the start of 2013 weighing in as follows:

36 winners from 150 runners (24%) for a profit of 32.23 (21.49% ROI) at SP, and 60.07 points at BSP (40.05% ROI).

This year has been on par with eight winners from 24 runners, for +11.34 SP / 18.15 BSP

The juvenile first time handicap route is less well trodden by the wily Baronet, but even with his two-year-olds he’s 8 from 27 (29.63%) for +17.51 SP / +27.28 BSP in the same time frame.

On Route is slightly different from the majority of Prescott handicap debutants in that she’s not stepping up in trip, instead remaining at the minimum five furlong range. She’s been off for 73 days since her last run, during which time she’s had a wind operation, and she will – I believe – be Sir Mark’s very first post-wind op runner.

Prescott has introduced 11 handicap debutants at Chelmsford in the last five years, with four winning for +15.50 (36.36% SR, 1.68 A/E, 3.19 IV), and he has a 22% strike rate with horses off a 60+ days layoff, and a 2.41 impact value, i.e. more than twice as likely as average to win off a layoff.

On Route represents the maestro in the sphere in which he excels and, as such, she may well be the answer to getting us back on track…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on On Route @ 11/4 BOGa price offered by at least six firms at 6.45pm on Monday night. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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