Stat of the Day, 30th August 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

4.30 Catterick: India @ 5/2 BOG [15p R4 to advised price/bookmaker] WON at 10/11 (Made all, driven over 2f out, stayed on well)

– Nice to get a winner, albeit with a Rule 4 and at a short enough price. I wanted to put up Flamenco in the 4.45 Carlisle for tomorrow but she’s already 5/2 into 2/1, which is just a smidge too short for this feature. Instead…

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

7.35 Fontwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Oliver’s Hill @ 9/4 BOG  [for the record, 5/2 available at time of writing with bet365]

In an 8 runner Class 4 2m3f handicap hurdle, worth £4094 to the winner… 

Why?

Lawney Hill doesn’t feature too highly on most people’s radars, but she is a very good trainer especially in the summer months. And she’s adept at getting her winners out quickly while they’re in form. Oliver’s Hill was a winner seven days ago over the figure-of-eight chase track here at Fontwell, and bids to follow up on the left-handed loop which comprises the hurdles circuit at the Sussex venue.

But the headline stat of the day is Lawney’s record with horses which won their previous race: she’s run a dozen such horses in the last year, with five of them (42%) following up. They copped for a tidy profit of 15.35 units at an Actual over Expected (A/E) of 2.00 and an Impact Value (IV) of 2.18.

Lawney is in good form both recently and in the last year at the track: Oliver’s Hill was winning as one of only two horses sent from the yard in the past fortnight; but there is a touch more data in her Course 1 Year stats which read 4/12, two more placed. That’s 33% winners and +2.43.

Jockey Aidan Coleman also has an excellent Fontwell record. In the last year at the track, he’s notched seven winners from 20 rides (35%, +8.25). His record on this horse overall reads 3P2114. Oliver’s Hill races off the same mark (117), at a similar trip (+ one furlong), in the same class (4), and on similar going. The only notable difference from last time is the course configuration even though both races will have been at Fontwell!

All of the above combines to…

… give us a 1pt win bet on Oliver’s Hill at 9/4 BOG, a price offered generally (bet365 are 5/2) as at 6.15pm on Wednesday evening.

…click here for the betting on the 7.35 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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