Thursday’s Pick was…
7.35 Fontwell: Oliver’s Hill @ 9/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Dwelt, reminder, led 1st, clear 6th, ridden and headed after 3 out, held next, weakened before last (op 9/2 tchd 5/1)
Friday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
The Throstles @ 9/2 BOG
In a 9 runner Class 4 1m2f handicap, worth £5531 to the winner…
A trainer in form and a horse for a course is the way in on Friday, with the two stats colliding around hat-trick-seeking The Throstles. Trained by Kevin Frost, another lesser light who knows how to get the job done, The Throstles has won three of his five starts at Dunstall Park. He bids for four from six, and three on the bounce – all at the same distance – in a warm Class 4 handicap.
The trainer is in excellent form, having won with four of his nine runners in the past fortnight, two more placed, for an SP profit of 23 points.
Frost also has a noteworthy positive A/E of 1.44 at the course in the last year from 54 runners and he’s a good chance of adding to that tally here.
Interestingly, perhaps, of those 54 runners – from which nine winners were harvested – 25 were at this distance. Roughly half of Frost’s runners at the distance, then, but seven of the nine winners (28%). Looking at handicaps only and that improves to 7/22 for +6.38.
As one of the three-year-olds in the field with scope to progress further, The Throstles has proven himself at the track and over the trip, winning last time by an easy 4.5 lengths. This is a step up in class but if he can tack across from a wide draw he ought to go close to bagging the hat-trick at an attractive price…
… so it’s a 1pt win bet on The Throstles at 9/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair and Paddy Power as at 6.15pm on Thursday evening.
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!