Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2018

Saturday’s Pick was…

4.45 Sandown : Secret Return @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, pushed along 2f out, ridden and kept on one pace)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

6.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 5, 1m2f Flat handicap for 3yo on Good to Firm ground, worth £3752 to the winner… 


This 3 yr old filly is going well right now, finishing 31332 in her five handicap starts and she’s the only one here to have won at this 1m2f trip to date. She was only narrowly touched off LTO 26 days ago, so cheekpieces are applied today to eke a little more from her.

Her trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has had 13 winners from 74 (17.6% SR) here at Windsor over the last three seasons and a backing them blindly would have produced 60pts profit at an ROI of some 81.1%.

Of those 74, Class 5 runners are 6/31 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+176.1%) and those priced shorter than 5/1 are 9/28 (32.1%) for 6.16pts (+22%) with Class 5 runners priced below 5/1 winning 4 from 12 (33.3%) for 2.33pts (+19.4% ROI). And of that dozen, today’s jockey Charlie Bishop is 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%).

EJH has been a bit quiet of late, but she’s one of a small group of trainers that I look out for in September each year. With Eve’s runners, I’m mainly interested in her lower grade (C4-6) Flat handicappers, who are 25 from 144 (17.4% SR) for 69pts (+47.9% ROI) profit since 2009 and these include…

    • at trips of 1m2f and shorter  :25/121 920.7%) for 92pts (+76%)
    • at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 22/91 (24.2%) for 46.4pts (+50.9%)
    • 3/4 yr olds are 15/91 (16.5%) for 42.7pts (+46.9%)
    • and on Good to Firm ground : 9/39 (23.1%) for 39.6pts (+101.6%)

And, based on the above : 3/4 yr olds racing over 7-10 furlongs at 8/1 and shorter = 11/42 (26.2% SR) for 30.3pts (+72.2% ROI) with Charlie Bishop riding 3 winners from just 6 efforts (50%) on his way to 12.54pts (+209% ROI) profit…

which steers us towards… a 1pt win bet on Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by over a dozen firms as at 10.10pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 6.30 Windsor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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