Stat of the Day, 4th September 2018

Monday’s Pick was…

6.30 Windsor : Camomile Lawn @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.05 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, 2m3f Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4159 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old comes here in good nick, having finished 323231 since returning from a 216-day absence in May this year. She was last seen 12 days ago, winning comfortably by 6 lengths here over course and distance staying on well under today’s jockey Marc Goldstein.

She’s trained by Shaun Lycett, whose LTO winners are 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 7pts (+25% ROI) profit since the start of 2014 and these include…

  • at odds of 4/1 and shorter : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22pts (+169%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.85pts (+142.8%)
  • NH runners : 4/8 (50%) for 8.19pts (+102.4%)
  • hurdlers : 3/6 (50%) for 6.68pts (+111.3%)
  • and hurdlers at 4/1 & shorter are 3/3 (100%) for 9.68pts (+322.7%)

Scotsbrook Night was sired by the late (and great IMO) Midnight Legend (regular/long-term readers will recall my liking for ML offspring), whose “daughters” are 37/157 (23.6% SR) for 131.1pts (+83.5% ROI) in handicap hurdles over trips shorter than 2.5 miles since the start of 2014, from which…

  • those aged 5 to 8 are 37/141 (26.2%) for 147.1pts (+104.3%)
  • at Class 3 to 5 : 36/140 (25.7%) for 135.1pts (+96.5%)
  • and those aged 5 to 8 running at Class 3 to 5 are 36/124 (29%) for 151.1pts (+121.9%)

And finally/more generally, it’s worth noting that in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, female runners who won a novice hurdle LTO 11 to 90 days earlier are 39/193 (20.2% SR) for 63.7pts (+33% ROI) with those returning to the same course and distance as that LTO success winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 16.1pts (+100.4%)…

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power on opening show at 5.15pm on Monday evening. SkyBet also opened up (5.30pm) at 10/3 BOG too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 5.05 Stratford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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