Stat of the Day, 5th September 2018

Tuesday’s Pick was…

5.05 Stratford : Scotsbrook Night @ 10/3 BOG fell at 9/4 (Led, driven and clear when fell at last)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 4, 3m Handicap Chase for 4yo+ on Good ground, worth £4614 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old has been on cracking form this year over hurdles finishing 11113 and now reverts back tot he bigger obstacles off a mark 10lbs lower than his hurdling rating. Of those five hurdle races this year, today’s jockey Harry Stock has been in the saddle for all five starts and these also include of note today…

  • 2 wins & 1 place at 2m7.5f and beyond, so stamina should be fine
  • a win and a place from 2 Class 3 outings, suggesting that he’s plenty good enough for a Class 4 contest,
  • where he is 2 from 2 this year

He is trained by Martin Keighley, who from a small number of runners has historically done well at this venue, winning 16 of 103 (15.5% SR) since the start of 2008, generating profits of 104pts (+101% ROI) along the way and these include of relevance today…

  • within 60 days of their last run : 14/74 (18.9%) for 106.2pts (+143.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/61 (19.7%) for 20pts (+32.8%)
  • 2016-18 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 26.65pts (+95.2%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/26 (34.6%) for 14.8pts (+57.1%)
  • after a top 3 finish LTO : 9/25 (36%) for 38.4pts (+153.8%)
  • and 9 yr olds are 5/10 (50%) for 28.6pts (+286%)

AND…from the above : 2016-18 + Class 4 + within 60 days of last run + odds of 5/2 to 6/1 = 6/8 (75% SR) for 28.95pts (+361.9% ROI), with 9 yr olds winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 12.82pts (+427.2%), including a win by Mr Mafia here back in June!

which all points to… a 1pt win bet on Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.40pm on Monday evening. There’s plenty of 3/1 BOG elsewhere too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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