Wednesday’s Pick was…
2.20 Southwell : Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Towards rear, not that fluent, pushed along briefly after 9th, headway on outside from 13th, 4th 3 out, went 2nd last, stayed on, couldn’t reach winner who won by just a length)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG
In a 10-runner, Class 6, 6f A/W Handicap for 3yo+ on Polytrack, worth £3493 to the winner…
Here we have a 4 yr old filly who won at this track over 7f just 5 days ago under today’s jockey. That was an apprentices’ handicap, so she escapes a penalty for that win, but does drop down a furlong today : this shouldn’t be an issue if she runs in the style as LTO, though.
Over the last nine months she is 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 8.82pts (+73.5% ROI) in non-Tapeta A/W handicaps (some horses just don’t “get” that surface), from which, she is…
- 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.82pts (+89.3%) within 3 weeks of her last run
- 4/10 (40%) for 10.82pts (+108.2%) in fields of 8-12 runners
- 3/10 (30%) for 4.21pts (+42.1%) on Polytrack
- 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.82pts (+131.3%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
- 3/6 (50%) for 11.63pts (+193.8%) at Class 6
- 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.5%) here at Chelmsford
- and 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%) under today’s jockey, the 7lb claimer William Carver.
Her trainer, Conrad Allen, is 11 from 79 (13.9% SR) for 123.4pts (+156.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses racing at Class 4 to 6 over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs within 25 days of their last run and more generally in UK All-Weather handicaps over 5f to 7f, all horses who won LTO 2 to 5 days earlier are 57 from 163 (35% SR) for 48.8pts (+29.9% ROI) since the start of 2014.
Of these quick returning winners…
- those racing at the same class as LTO are 41/107 (38.3%) for 39.3pts (+36.7%)
- those racing on Polytrack are 30/81 (37%) for 30.9pts (+38.2%)
- at Class 6 : 29/80 (36.25%) for 28.3pts (+35.4%)
- at Class 6 on Polytrack : 13/37 (35.1%) for 16.4pts (+44.4%)
- and at Class 6 on Polytrack after racing at Class 6 on Polytrack LTO : 10/27 (37%) for 11.04pts (+40.9%)
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 6.05pm on Tuesday evening. There is however, some 7/2 BOG at Bet365, if you can get on, too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!