Stat of the Day, 6th September 2018

Wednesday’s Pick was…

2.20 Southwell : Mr Mafia @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Towards rear, not that fluent, pushed along briefly after 9th, headway on outside from 13th, 4th 3 out, went 2nd last, stayed on, couldn’t reach winner who won by just a length)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

8.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 6, 6f A/W Handicap for 3yo+ on Polytrack, worth £3493 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 4 yr old filly who won at this track over 7f just 5 days ago under today’s jockey. That was an apprentices’ handicap, so she escapes a penalty for that win, but does drop down a furlong today : this shouldn’t be an issue if she runs in the style as LTO, though.

Over the last nine months she is 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 8.82pts (+73.5% ROI) in non-Tapeta A/W handicaps (some horses just don’t “get” that surface), from which, she is…

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.82pts (+89.3%) within 3 weeks of her last run
  • 4/10 (40%) for 10.82pts (+108.2%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 3/10 (30%) for 4.21pts (+42.1%) on Polytrack
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.82pts (+131.3%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
  • 3/6 (50%) for 11.63pts (+193.8%) at Class 6
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%) under today’s jockey, the 7lb claimer William Carver.

Her trainer, Conrad Allen, is 11 from 79 (13.9% SR) for 123.4pts (+156.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses racing at Class 4 to 6 over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs within 25 days of their last run and more generally in UK All-Weather handicaps over 5f to 7f, all horses who won LTO 2 to 5 days earlier are 57 from 163 (35% SR) for 48.8pts (+29.9% ROI) since the start of 2014.

Of these quick returning winners…

  • those racing at the same class as LTO are 41/107 (38.3%) for 39.3pts (+36.7%)
  • those racing on Polytrack are 30/81 (37%) for 30.9pts (+38.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/80 (36.25%) for 28.3pts (+35.4%)
  • at Class 6 on Polytrack : 13/37 (35.1%) for 16.4pts (+44.4%)
  • and at Class 6 on Polytrack after racing at Class 6 on Polytrack LTO : 10/27 (37%) for 11.04pts (+40.9%)

giving us… a 1pt win bet on Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 6.05pm on Tuesday evening. There is however, some  7/2 BOG at Bet365, if you can get on, too. To see what your preferred bookie will give you…

…click here for the betting on the 8.45 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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